Time-Series Forecasting Model for Yield Improvement in Municipal Infrastructure Assets Systems in Tanzania,

This study focuses on municipal infrastructure assets systems in Tanzania, evaluating their performance over time. A time-series forecasting model was employed using historical data from municipal infrastructure assets in Tanzania. The model incorporates ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology to predict future performance. The forecasted yield improvement shows a linear trend with an estimated increase of 15% over the next five years, which is significant for resource planning and investment strategies. The time-series forecasting model effectively predicts trends in municipal infrastructure asset systems, providing actionable insights for policy makers and urban planners. Based on findings, recommendations include prioritising investments in maintenance and upgrading of existing assets to enhance yield, alongside strategic planning for future projects. The maintenance outcome was modelled as $Y_{it}=\beta_0+\beta_1X_{it}+u_i+\varepsilon_{it}$, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.