Bayesian Hierarchical Model Evaluation of Municipal Infrastructure Asset Systems in Ethiopia: A Comparative Study

The study examines municipal infrastructure asset systems in Ethiopia, focusing on their reliability under varying conditions. A novel Bayesian hierarchical model is employed to assess system reliability. This approach allows for the integration of different types of data, including historical performance metrics and predictive models. The analysis revealed significant variability in asset performance across different regions within Ethiopia, indicating the need for targeted interventions. This study provides a robust framework for assessing municipal infrastructure reliability that integrates both empirical data and expert knowledge. Policy makers should consider implementing regional-specific strategies to enhance infrastructure resilience based on this model’s findings. Bayesian hierarchical models, municipal infrastructure, asset systems, Ethiopia, system reliability The maintenance outcome was modelled as $Y_{it}=\beta_0+\beta_1X_{it}+u_i+\varepsilon_{it}$, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.