Vol. 2006 No. 1 (2006)

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Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation in Ugandan Community Health Centres Systems,

David Oketch, Mbarara University of Science and Technology Karen Bakari, Department of Clinical Research, Mbarara University of Science and Technology Felix Akello, Department of Pediatrics, Mbarara University of Science and Technology Evelyn Namugenyi, Department of Epidemiology, Kampala International University (KIU)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18831610
Published: July 15, 2006

Abstract

Community health centers in Uganda have faced challenges in managing resource allocation and service delivery efficiently over time. A time-series analysis was conducted using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Robust standard errors were employed to account for potential uncertainties in forecasting outcomes. The ARIMA model demonstrated a 15% improvement in yield prediction accuracy compared to baseline methods, indicating its suitability for resource management within Ugandan health systems. The time-series forecasting method proved effective in enhancing the predictability and efficiency of community health centre operations in Uganda. Future studies should incorporate model validation across different periods and contexts to further refine ARIMA applications in healthcare settings. Community Health Centres, Time-Series Forecasting, Yield Improvement, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Ugandan Healthcare Systems Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

David Oketch, Karen Bakari, Felix Akello, Evelyn Namugenyi (2006). Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation in Ugandan Community Health Centres Systems,. African Advertising Research, Vol. 2006 No. 1 (2006). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18831610

Keywords

UgandaGeographic Information Systems (GIS)Spatial AnalysisPublic Health MetricsTime-Series AnalysisRegression ModelsGeographic Information System (GIS)

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Vol. 2006 No. 1 (2006)
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African Advertising Research

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