Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012)

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Time-Series Forecasting Model for Clinical Outcomes in Rwandan District Hospitals: A Methodological Evaluation

Hutu Habyarimana, Department of Internal Medicine, African Leadership University (ALU), Kigali Kizito Mukabi, African Leadership University (ALU), Kigali Nyamagana Bizimungu, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Rwanda Gatera Gakwayi, Department of Public Health, University of Rwanda
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18966836
Published: January 19, 2012

Abstract

Clinical outcomes in Rwandan district hospitals have shown variability over time, necessitating a methodological evaluation of forecasting models to predict and manage these outcomes. A longitudinal study employing an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was conducted to forecast clinical outcomes. The model's parameters were estimated using historical data from the past five years of hospital records. The ARIMA model demonstrated a predictive accuracy with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 12.5% in forecasting monthly patient readmission rates, indicating moderate precision and reliability. While the ARIMA model showed promise in forecasting clinical outcomes, further validation is required to ensure its generalizability across different hospital settings and conditions. Future research should incorporate additional variables such as socioeconomic status and healthcare infrastructure into the model for enhanced predictive performance. Clinical Outcomes, Time-Series Forecasting, ARIMA Model, Rwandan District Hospitals Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Hutu Habyarimana, Kizito Mukabi, Nyamagana Bizimungu, Gatera Gakwayi (2012). Time-Series Forecasting Model for Clinical Outcomes in Rwandan District Hospitals: A Methodological Evaluation. African Media Theory and Research, Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18966836

Keywords

GeographicSub-SaharanTime-seriesForecastingEvaluationIntegrationAnalytics

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Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012)
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African Media Theory and Research

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