Time-Series Forecasting Model for Yield Improvement in Community Health Centre Systems in Ethiopia,

Community health centres in Ethiopia have been established to improve access to healthcare services. However, their effectiveness over time has not been systematically evaluated. A time-series forecasting model was applied to historical data from Ethiopian community health centres, focusing on key indicators such as service utilization rates and patient outcomes. The analysis aimed to predict future yield improvements with uncertainty bounds based on standard errors. The forecasted increase in service utilization for the next five years is projected at a rate of 5% per annum, with an estimated uncertainty interval of ±2%. The time-series forecasting model demonstrated potential as a tool to measure yield improvement in community health centres. The findings suggest that targeted interventions could further enhance healthcare outcomes. Communities and policymakers should consider the forecasted improvements when planning resource allocation strategies for future years. Community Health Centres, Yield Improvement, Time-Series Forecasting, Ethiopia Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.