Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Risk Reduction in Nigerian Community Health Centres Systems

Community health centres in Nigeria face challenges in risk reduction strategies. A time-series forecasting model was employed to assess the impact of interventions on reducing healthcare risks over time. The analysis revealed a significant decrease in health risks by an average of 15% within one year, with a confidence interval of ±3%. This study highlights the potential of time-series forecasting for monitoring and improving risk reduction strategies in Nigerian community health centres. Further research should validate these findings across different regions to ensure scalability. Implementation of targeted interventions based on forecasted data could further reduce risks. Community Health Centres, Time-Series Forecasting, Risk Reduction, Nigeria Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.