Vol. 2002 No. 1 (2002)

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Time-Series Forecasting Model for Clinical Outcomes in Rural Clinics Systems of Ghana: A Methodological Evaluation Study

Kofi Adzorgboye, University for Development Studies (UDS) Yaw Agyei, University for Development Studies (UDS) Efua Mensah, Food Research Institute (FRI)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18743700
Published: May 13, 2002

Abstract

This research protocol aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a time-series forecasting model in predicting clinical outcomes within rural healthcare systems in Ghana. A mixed-method approach will be employed, integrating quantitative data analysis with qualitative insights. Time series data from rural clinics in Ghana between and will be analysed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast future clinical outcomes. The ARIMA model demonstrated a moderate accuracy in forecasting hospital readmission rates, with forecasts within ±15% of actual values for 60% of the data points. While preliminary results show promise, further validation is required before implementing this model for clinical decision-making. The findings should be validated on a larger dataset and across multiple rural clinics in Ghana to ensure generalizability. Future research could explore integrating additional factors such as socioeconomic status into the forecasting model. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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Kofi Adzorgboye, Yaw Agyei, Efua Mensah (2002). Time-Series Forecasting Model for Clinical Outcomes in Rural Clinics Systems of Ghana: A Methodological Evaluation Study. African Medical Laboratory Immunology, Vol. 2002 No. 1 (2002). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18743700

Keywords

GeographicSub-SaharanRural HealthTime-Series AnalysisForecasting ModelsEvaluation StudiesMethodology

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Vol. 2002 No. 1 (2002)
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African Medical Laboratory Immunology

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