Vol. 2013 No. 1 (2013)

View Issue TOC

Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Emergency Care Units in Ghana: A Methodological Assessment

Kwamie Agyeman, Ashesi University Dankwa Fosu, University of Ghana, Legon Yakubu Asare, Ashesi University Amoako Kwesi, Ashesi University
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18989112
Published: May 21, 2013

Abstract

Emergency care units (ECUs) in Ghana face challenges related to patient throughput and clinical outcomes. A time-series forecasting model was developed using historical data from ECUs. The model incorporates autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology, accounting for potential autocorrelation in the residuals to ensure robustness. The ARIMA model showed a significant improvement in predicting hospital stay lengths with an R² value of 0.85 and standard errors that were within ±10% confidence intervals. The time-series forecasting model demonstrated reliability in estimating clinical outcomes, particularly for hospital stays, providing valuable insights for improving ECUs in Ghana. ECU managers should use the forecasted data to optimise resource allocation and improve patient care processes. Emergency Care Units, Time-Series Forecasting, ARIMA Model, Clinical Outcomes, Ghana Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

Full Text:

Read the Full Article

The HTML galley is loaded below for inline reading and better discovery.

How to Cite

Kwamie Agyeman, Dankwa Fosu, Yakubu Asare, Amoako Kwesi (2013). Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Emergency Care Units in Ghana: A Methodological Assessment. African Medical Laboratory Microbiology, Vol. 2013 No. 1 (2013). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18989112

Keywords

GeographicSub-SaharanMethodologyTime-seriesForecastingEvaluationSystems

Research Snapshot

Desktop reading view
Language
EN
Formats
HTML + PDF
Publication Track
Vol. 2013 No. 1 (2013)
Current Journal
African Medical Laboratory Microbiology

References