Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009)

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Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation for Cost-Effectiveness of Community Health Centres in Ethiopia

Mulugeta Asfaw, Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI) Yared Desta, Addis Ababa Science and Technology University (AASTU) Abiy Ayana, Addis Ababa Science and Technology University (AASTU) Habtamu Gebre, Addis Ababa Science and Technology University (AASTU)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18886127
Published: March 19, 2009

Abstract

Community health centres in Ethiopia have been established to improve access to healthcare services among underserved populations. However, evaluating their cost-effectiveness over time remains a challenge. A time-series forecasting model was applied to historical data collected from Ethiopia's community health centres between and . The model considered variables such as patient volume, service delivery costs, and resource allocation. The forecasted cost-effectiveness index showed a significant positive trend over the study period, indicating an improvement in healthcare efficiency with increased patient volumes. This research provides evidence of the effectiveness of community health centres in terms of cost-efficiency. The model's predictive accuracy is robust and can be applied to future evaluations. Further studies should explore the long-term sustainability and scalability of these models across different regions and timeframes, with a focus on resource allocation strategies. Community Health Centres, Cost-Effectiveness, Time-Series Forecasting, Ethiopia Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Mulugeta Asfaw, Yared Desta, Abiy Ayana, Habtamu Gebre (2009). Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation for Cost-Effectiveness of Community Health Centres in Ethiopia. African Nursing Management, Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18886127

Keywords

African geographycommunity health centerscost-effectiveness analysisforecasting modelsgeographic information systemshealthcare economicstime-series analysis

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Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009)
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African Nursing Management

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