Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Efficiency Gains in District Hospitals Systems,: A Longitudinal Study on Kenya's Healthcare Governance Context

This study examines district hospitals in Kenya's healthcare system over a decade to evaluate efficiency gains. A longitudinal study employing a time-series forecasting model was conducted. The model incorporates ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology to forecast hospital efficiency gains. The analysis revealed that the average efficiency gain over five years was between 5% and 7%, with significant variability across different districts, influenced by factors such as staffing levels and funding availability. The time-series model successfully identified patterns of efficiency change in district hospitals, providing a robust framework for future policy evaluations and resource allocation decisions. Based on the findings, policymakers should focus on enhancing human resources management and increasing financial stability to achieve sustained efficiency improvements in district hospitals. District Hospitals, Efficiency Gains, Time-Series Forecasting, ARIMA Model, Healthcare Governance Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.