Vol. 3 No. 1 (2022)
Modelling Climate Variability and Meningococcal Meningitis in the African Meningitis Belt: A Review of Predictive Systems for Early Warning in Senegal
Abstract
**Revised Abstract**
Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis (MM) pose a recurrent public health threat across the African meningitis belt, with Senegal experiencing frequent outbreaks. Seasonal hyperendemicity and epidemic surges are strongly influenced by climatic conditions, particularly during the dry season. Predictive modelling, which integrates climate variables with epidemiological data, offers a pathway towards proactive outbreak management through early warning systems (EWS). This systematic review critically evaluates the current state of evidence on climate-driven predictive models for MM in Senegal. Following PRISMA-ScR guidelines, we systematically searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and relevant grey literature sources up to May 2024. Search strings combined terms for meningitis, climate, prediction, and Senegal. Included studies employed statistical or mechanistic models linking climatic factors—such as absolute humidity, dust, and temperature—to MM incidence. Our synthesis identifies a consensus that low humidity and high atmospheric dust concentrations are critical precursors to epidemic risk. We critically compare modelling methodologies and assess the operational performance of emerging EWS in Senegal, which increasingly utilise satellite-derived climate data. While these integrated systems show potential for district-level outbreak forecasting, significant challenges remain in validation and operational scalability. The findings underscore the necessity of robust, interdisciplinary collaboration between meteorology and public health. Refining and implementing these climate-informed models is imperative for optimising pre-emptive interventions, such as targeted vaccine deployment and resource mobilisation, to reduce MM burden within Senegal's resource-constrained health system.
Read the Full Article
The HTML galley is loaded below for inline reading and better discovery.
How to Cite
Keywords
Research Snapshot
Desktop reading viewReferences
- AHSAN, M.U. (2025). Peer Review Report For: Updating the meningitis belt: associations between environmental factors and epidemic meningitis risk across Africa [version 1; peer review: 3 approved with reservations]. https://doi.org/10.21956/wellcomeopenres.27291.r132782
- Bassat, Q., Quesada, R., Pellicer, A., Cabañas, F., & Ajanovic, S. (2024). Non-invasive detection and monitoring of childhood meningitis
- (“UNITED Meningitis - Ultrasound Non-Invasive Technology for Early Diagnosis of Meningitis”). https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.pex-2308/v1
- CHEN, Z., LIU, X., & WU, R. (2025). DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF VACCINATION WITH FRACTIONAL-DOSE MENINGOCOCCAL VACCINE IN THE AFRICAN MENINGITIS BELT. Journal of Biological Systems. https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339026500087
- Chen, J. (2025). Peer Review Report For: Updating the meningitis belt: associations between environmental factors and epidemic meningitis risk across Africa [version 1; peer review: 3 approved with reservations]. https://doi.org/10.21956/wellcomeopenres.27291.r135924
- Cliff, M., Jahn, S., Fouda, A.B., Latt, A., Lingani, C., & Trotter, C. (2025). Re-examining the meningitis belt: associations between environmental factors and epidemic meningitis risk across Africa. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.02.25.25322867
- Cliff, M., Jahn, S., Bita Fouda, A., Latt, A., Lingani, C., & Trotter, C. (2025). Updating the meningitis belt: associations between environmental factors and epidemic meningitis risk across Africa. Wellcome Open Research. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.24771.1
- Cliff, M.V., Diallo, K., Yapi, R., Tano, D., Jahn, S., Wainwright, C., & Trotter, C. (2025). How do climatic factors directly influence the incidence and risk of meningococcal meningitis across the African meningitis belt? A narrative literature review. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.176478823.34231708/v1
- Fairweather, N., Quigley, A., & Moa, A. (2025). An Overview of the outbreak of Meningococcal meningitis in Loreto region, Peru, August 2024. Global Biosecurity. https://doi.org/10.31646/gbio.296
- Gatyeni, S.P. (2025). Mathematical modeling of meningitis transmission dynamics and the impact of vaccination strategies. Scientific African. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03048
- Goni, B.W., Kwairanga, H.S., Isiaka, M., Ba’aba, A., Baba, M.M., Abdul, H., Gana, M.L., Kida, I.M., Bakki, B., Yusuph, H., Maina, M.B., & Mohammed, I. (2025). Epidemic meningococcal meningitis outbreak due to serogroup-c in Yobe state northeastern Nigeria: risk factors and effect of reactive ring vaccination with pentavalent conjugate meningococcal vaccine. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.03.31.25324991
- Hadley, L., Soeters, H.M., Cooper, L.V., Fernandez, K., Latt, A., Bita Fouda, A.A., & Trotter, C. (2024). Modelling control strategies for pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks in the African meningitis belt. Vaccine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.05.031
- Hommood, A.K. (2025). Novel Biomarkers for Early Detection of Bacterial Meningitis. Indonesian Journal on Health Science and Medicine. https://doi.org/10.21070/ijhsm.v2i2.264
- Hussaini, N., Habib, A.G., Garba, I., Baba, I.A., Colubri, A., Abdulrashid, I., & Musa, S.S. (2025). Modeling Neisseria meningitidis transmission dynamics and the impact of pentavalent vaccination targeting serogroups A, C, W-135, Y, and X in the African meningitis belt. Infectious Disease Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.008
- Idoko, O.T. (2025). Meningitis. Principles of Medicine in Africa. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009052733.025
- Jiang, W. (2024). Implementing advanced techniques for urban mountain torrent surveillance and early warning using rainfall predictive analysis. Urban Climate. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101782
- Karachaliou Prasinou, A., & Trotter, C. (2025). Modelling of strategies for the introduction and routine use of multivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines (MMCVs) in the African meningitis belt. PLOS One. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0330627
- Li, T. (2025). Peer Review Report For: Updating the meningitis belt: associations between environmental factors and epidemic meningitis risk across Africa [version 1; peer review: 3 approved with reservations]. https://doi.org/10.21956/wellcomeopenres.27291.r134964
- Marc LaForce, F., Djingarey, M., Bita, A., Jadhav, S.S., Kulkarni, P.S., Viviani, S., & Pierre Preziosi, M. (2025). The Elimination of Group A Meningococcal Meningitis From Sub-Saharan Africa After the Introduction of a New Group A Meningococcal Conjugate Vaccine. The Principles and Practice of Disease Eradication. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197687420.003.0006
- Mghazli, H. (2025). The benefits of meningococcal vaccination for meningococcal B meningitis in Morocco. Journal of Clinical Images and Medical Case Reports. https://doi.org/10.52768/2766-7820/3612
- Opoku, B., Sakyi, A., & Borkor, R.N. (2025). Mathematical modelling of meningitis serogroups A and C transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa: A case study in Ghana. Scientific African. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02758
- Panjwani, S., Jampani, M., Sambou, M.H., & Amarnath, G. (2024). Leveraging crop yield forecasts using satellite information for early warning in Senegal. Climate Smart Agriculture. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csag.2024.100024
- Pathak, A., Pham, C., Shay, S., Lasco, T., & Al Mohajer, M. (2024). FilmArray Meningitis/Encephalitis Panel Impact on Antibiotic Usage in Patients with Suspected Community-Acquired Meningitis. Antimicrobial Stewardship & Healthcare Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1017/ash.2024.142
- Pathak, A., Pham, C., Shay, S., Lasco, T., & Al Mohajer, M. (2024). The impact of the FilmArray meningitis/encephalitis panel on empiric antibiotic prescriptions in patients with suspected community-acquired meningitis. Antimicrobial Stewardship & Healthcare Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1017/ash.2024.343
- Toure, M. (2025). Climate Trends in Senegal. Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-80716-9_1
- Toure, M. (2025). Resulting Impact of Climate Change on Child Malnutrition. Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-80716-9_4