African Conflict Resolution Journal (Political Science focus) | 21 March 2008
Methodological Assessment and Time-Series Forecasting of South African Secondary School Systems Efficiency,
T, h, a, m, i, M, a, n, k, w, a, n, e, ,, N, o, m, o, n, d, e, M, a, s, e, k, o, ,, M, p, h, o, M, o, l, o, i, ,, S, i, p, h, o, C, e, l, e
Abstract
This scoping review evaluates methodological approaches used to assess secondary school systems in South Africa over a decade. A systematic search strategy was employed, including articles from databases such as JSTOR, Google Scholar, and Scopus. Methodological frameworks were synthesized using thematic analysis. The review identified a need for more robust statistical models in evaluating school system efficiencies, particularly in areas of resource allocation and student performance metrics. A novel time-series forecasting model is proposed to enhance the accuracy of efficiency measurements by incorporating dynamic data from various years. Policy-makers should consider adopting this new model for ongoing evaluations of secondary school systems to ensure effective policy implementation and outcomes. Model estimation used $\hat{\theta}=argmin<em>{\theta}\sum</em>i\ell(y<em>i,f</em>\theta(x<em>i))+\lambda\lVert\theta\rVert</em>2^2$, with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.