Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)

View Issue TOC

The Fragility of the R-ARCSS: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Local Perceptions and Conflict Data in South Sudan

Abraham Kuol Nyuon, Associate Professor of Politics, Peace, and Security; Principal, Graduate College, University of Juba; SUSI Scholar on U.S. Foreign Policy
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19476282
Published: September 20, 2025

Abstract

This mixed-methods study critically examines the implementation and local reception of South Sudan's Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) from 2018 to 2023. It combines quantitative analysis of conflict event data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) with qualitative thematic analysis of 45 semi-structured interviews conducted with civil society leaders, community elders, and displaced persons in Juba, Bentiu, and Malakal. The quantitative results demonstrate a significant spatial and temporal variation in violence, with a decline in major battles but a persistent, high level of politically motivated, low-intensity conflict. The qualitative findings reveal a pervasive local narrative of elite capture, institutionalised exclusion, and a deficit of trust in transitional mechanisms. The integrated analysis argues that the technical implementation of security arrangements has failed to address the foundational political marketplace and logics of violence, thereby explaining the agreement's fragility. The study concludes that sustainable peace requires moving beyond elite bargains to foster inclusive political settlements and genuine community-level reconciliation.

Full Text:

Read the Full Article

The HTML galley is loaded below for inline reading and better discovery.

How to Cite

Abraham Kuol Nyuon (2025). The Fragility of the R-ARCSS: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Local Perceptions and Conflict Data in South Sudan. African Peace Studies (Political Science focus), Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19476282

Keywords

Revitalised Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS)Political MarketplaceLocal Perceptions of PeaceACLED Data AnalysisElite BargainsSecurity Sector Reform (SSR)Transitional Governance

Research Snapshot

Desktop reading view
Language
EN
Formats
HTML + PDF
Publication Track
Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)
Current Journal
African Peace Studies (Political Science focus)

References