Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011)

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Machine Learning Models for Climate Prediction and Adaptation in South Africa

Sello Makhene, Graduate School of Business, UCT Nomsa Dlamini, University of KwaZulu-Natal Khathi Ngwenya, Graduate School of Business, UCT
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18934354
Published: March 26, 2011

Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges to South Africa's agricultural productivity and infrastructure resilience. A hybrid ensemble of Random Forest and Support Vector Machines (SVM) was trained on historical climate data from the South African Weather Service. The ensemble model achieved an accuracy rate of 78% in predicting temperature anomalies across different regions, with a confidence interval indicating robust reliability. Machine learning models can significantly enhance climate prediction capabilities for South Africa's adaptation strategies. Adopted models should be integrated into government planning frameworks and shared among stakeholders to maximise impact. Climate Prediction, Machine Learning, Ensemble Models, South Africa Model estimation used $\hat{\theta}=argmin_{\theta}\sum_i\ell(y_i,f_\theta(x_i))+\lambda\lVert\theta\rVert_2^2$, with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.

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How to Cite

Sello Makhene, Nomsa Dlamini, Khathi Ngwenya (2011). Machine Learning Models for Climate Prediction and Adaptation in South Africa. African Security Studies (Political Science focus), Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18934354

Keywords

African GeographyClimate ChangeEnsemble LearningMachine LearningRandom ForestSupport Vector MachinesWeather Forecasting

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Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011)
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African Security Studies (Political Science focus)

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