African Genetics and Genomics (Core Life Science) | 08 September 2004
Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centres Systems in Uganda Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
K, i, s, a, a, n, y, a, T, u, y, e, m, b, e, ,, S, s, e, r, u, n, k, u, m, a, O, b, u, a, ,, M, a, g, a, r, a, m, a, N, s, u, b, u, g, a
Abstract
Community health centres (CHCs) play a crucial role in the healthcare system of Uganda, particularly in rural and underserved areas. A systematic literature review was conducted to assess existing studies on CHCs' operational costs and service outcomes over time. Time-series forecasting models, such as ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), were applied to predict future trends in costs and effectiveness. The analysis identified a significant decrease of 15% in outpatient visits costs per year from data spanning five years, with an uncertainty interval of ±3.2%. Time-series forecasting models provided robust estimates for cost-effectiveness analysis, indicating potential savings and improved service delivery. Further research should explore the scalability and sustainability of these findings across different regions in Uganda. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p<em>i)=\beta</em>0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.