Vol. 2008 No. 1 (2008)

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Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Senegal Using Time-Series Forecasting Models: A Longitudinal Study

Amadou Diop, Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA), Dakar
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18867772
Published: May 4, 2008

Abstract

Public health surveillance systems in Senegal are crucial for monitoring diseases and responding to emerging threats efficiently. The study employed ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model predictions to forecast future health data trends, incorporating robust standard errors to account for uncertainty in forecasts. Over the study period, the ARIMA model demonstrated a significant reduction in forecasting errors by 15% compared to previous models, indicating improved system efficiency and timely response capabilities. The ARIMA model proved effective in enhancing the accuracy of public health surveillance systems in Senegal, enabling more proactive disease management strategies. Implementing continuous monitoring and periodic updates will ensure the continued effectiveness and adaptability of these surveillance systems. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Amadou Diop (2008). Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Senegal Using Time-Series Forecasting Models: A Longitudinal Study. African Immunology Journal (Core Life Science), Vol. 2008 No. 1 (2008). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18867772

Keywords

African epidemiologyARIMAlongitudinal studypublic health surveillancetime-series analysisgeographic information systemsspatial-temporal modelling

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Vol. 2008 No. 1 (2008)
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African Immunology Journal (Core Life Science)

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