Vol. 2005 No. 1 (2005)

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Asymptotic Analysis and Identifiability in Dynamical Models for Traffic Flow Optimization in Uganda,

Otombe Nabirwe, Department of Advanced Studies, Mbarara University of Science and Technology Kabagambe Ssekitaro, Uganda National Council for Science and Technology (UNCST) Muhangi Okello, Department of Advanced Studies, Medical Research Council (MRC)/UVRI and LSHTM Uganda Research Unit
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18813609
Published: June 9, 2005

Abstract

This study examines dynamical models for traffic flow optimization in Uganda, focusing on identifying model parameters to improve road traffic management. A linearized dynamical system was formulated based on conservation laws, representing vehicle density as a function of time and space. Identifiability was tested by varying initial conditions and boundary conditions in simulations. The simplified model demonstrated asymptotic stability for all tested scenarios, indicating that the traffic flow dynamics converge to an equilibrium state regardless of the starting point or external influences. A specific proportion (80%) of the parameters could be uniquely determined from a single set of observations under certain boundary conditions. The analysis confirms the model's robustness and stability but highlights the challenge in parameter identification, suggesting that additional data points might be required for precise calibration. Further research should focus on validating the model with real-world traffic flow data to improve its predictive accuracy and applicability in traffic management systems. Model selection is formalised as $\hat{\theta}=argmin_{\theta\in\Theta}\{L(\theta)+\lambda\,\Omega(\theta)\}$ with consistency under mild identifiability assumptions.

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How to Cite

Otombe Nabirwe, Kabagambe Ssekitaro, Muhangi Okello (2005). Asymptotic Analysis and Identifiability in Dynamical Models for Traffic Flow Optimization in Uganda,. African Algebra Journal (Pure Science), Vol. 2005 No. 1 (2005). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18813609

Keywords

UgandaDynamical SystemsTraffic FlowIdentifiabilityAsymptotic AnalysisStabilityOptimization

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Vol. 2005 No. 1 (2005)
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African Algebra Journal (Pure Science)

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