Vol. 2013 No. 1 (2013)

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Revisiting Time-Series Forecasting Models for Water Treatment Facilities in Tanzania: A Methodological Evaluation

Saidi Mwakinyanga, Catholic University of Health and Allied Sciences (CUHAS) Zanele Masembe, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences (MUHAS), Dar es Salaam Abdi Mohammed, Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA), Morogoro Khalid Kibosya, Department of Electrical Engineering, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences (MUHAS), Dar es Salaam
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18993762
Published: February 25, 2013

Abstract

This study revisits previous research on time-series forecasting models applied to water treatment facilities in Tanzania, focusing on methodological improvements and evaluation. A comprehensive replication of the original study’s data collection and analysis methods was employed, ensuring consistency with previous work but incorporating enhanced statistical models for improved forecasting precision. Specifically, a Random Forest regression model is used to predict future water treatment facility performance based on historical data. The findings indicate that the Random Forest model accurately forecasts water quality improvements by over 85% in terms of both direction and proportion across various facilities compared to baseline models. This replication confirms the reliability of time-series forecasting for monitoring and improving water treatment facility performance in Tanzania, with a notable improvement in predictive accuracy using advanced statistical methods. Future research should explore additional variables that could influence water quality predictions beyond those initially considered, such as fluctuations in raw water supply or technological advancements in treatment processes. The maintenance outcome was modelled as $Y_{it}=\beta_0+\beta_1X_{it}+u_i+\varepsilon_{it}$, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.

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How to Cite

Saidi Mwakinyanga, Zanele Masembe, Abdi Mohammed, Khalid Kibosya (2013). Revisiting Time-Series Forecasting Models for Water Treatment Facilities in Tanzania: A Methodological Evaluation. African Materials Science Letters (Pure Aspects - Pure Science), Vol. 2013 No. 1 (2013). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18993762

Keywords

TanzaniaGeographic Information Systems (GIS)Monte Carlo SimulationEmpirical ValidationTime-Series AnalysisForecasting ModelsData Quality Assurance

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Vol. 2013 No. 1 (2013)
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African Materials Science Letters (Pure Aspects - Pure Science)

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