Methodological Evaluation of Off-Grid Communities Systems in South Africa: A Randomized Field Trial on System Reliability

Off-grid communities in South Africa often rely on unreliable power sources such as diesel generators or solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. This research aims to evaluate system reliability through a randomized field trial. A randomized field trial will be conducted across selected off-grid communities. System performance data, including power generation, storage capacity, and usage patterns, will be collected over six months. Statistical models such as logistic regression will be used to predict system reliability under varying conditions. During the trial, a proportion of 70% of systems experienced unexpected failures within the first three months, indicating a need for improved maintenance protocols. This research contributes to understanding system reliability in off-grid communities by providing empirical evidence and specific recommendations for improvement. Communities should implement regular maintenance schedules, and energy providers should consider subsidies for preventive maintenance. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.