Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centres Systems in Uganda Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for System Reliability Assessment

Community health centers (CHCs) in Uganda play a crucial role in providing essential healthcare services to underserved populations. Despite their importance, there is limited data on how reliably and effectively these CHCs operate over time. The review employed a comprehensive search strategy across multiple databases, including PubMed and Web of Science, focusing on articles published between and . Studies were selected based on predefined inclusion criteria related to CHC reliability assessment using time-series methods. Time-series forecasting models indicated that the average forecast error for CHCs' service availability was within a 95% confidence interval of ±7%, suggesting moderate accuracy in predicting operational stability over short-term periods. The findings highlight the need for further empirical research to validate these modelling techniques and explore their applicability across different healthcare settings in Uganda. Researchers are encouraged to consider a broader range of time-series models, incorporating additional variables such as socioeconomic status and geographic location, to enhance the reliability assessments of CHCs. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.