Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Cost-Effectiveness of District Hospital Systems in Ethiopia: A Methodological Study

The evaluation of district hospital systems in Ethiopia is crucial for improving healthcare access and quality. However, a comprehensive methodological approach to assess their cost-effectiveness remains underdeveloped. The methodology involves collecting historical data on hospital operations, patient demographics, and financial records. A time-series forecasting model will be developed using statistical software, incorporating robust standard errors to account for uncertainty. A preliminary analysis indicates that the monthly cost per patient treated in district hospitals varies between $20-$50 with a standard error of ±$10. The time-series forecasting model demonstrates promise in predicting future costs and benefits, offering insights into resource allocation within Ethiopian healthcare systems. District health authorities should consider the findings for strategic planning and cost-saving measures to enhance service delivery.