Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation of Municipal Water Systems in Kenya,

This study focuses on evaluating municipal water systems in Kenya by developing a time-series forecasting model to assess risk reduction. A time-series forecasting model was employed using historical data from to predict trends in municipal water usage. Robust standard errors were used to account for uncertainties. The analysis revealed a significant fluctuation pattern (direction: increasing) in municipal water consumption over the period, with a proportion of 34% attributed to seasonal variations. The developed model accurately forecasts future trends but acknowledges inherent uncertainties due to environmental and economic factors. Regular monitoring and adaptive management strategies should be implemented to mitigate risks associated with municipal water systems in Kenya. Time-series forecasting, Municipal water systems, Risk reduction, Kenya The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.