Vol. 2010 No. 1 (2010)

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Forecasting Yield Improvement in Ugandan District Hospitals Using Time-Series Models: A Methodological Evaluation

Semedi Muyanja, Mbarara University of Science and Technology Orikiibi Kizza, Busitema University Kabanda Namugit, Busitema University
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18906156
Published: March 22, 2010

Abstract

Ugandan district hospitals play a crucial role in healthcare delivery, but their performance metrics such as patient yield improvement are often poorly documented and forecasted. Time-series analysis was employed to model yield improvements over time. The Box-Jenkins methodology was used with an ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model for forecasting. The ARIMA(2,1,0) model provided a forecast direction of increase in patient yield improvement by approximately 5% within the next year. Time-series models effectively predict yield improvements at Ugandan district hospitals, offering a robust methodological evaluation. Further research should explore integrating these models into hospital management systems for better resource allocation and planning. Uganda, District Hospitals, Time-Series Forecasting, Yield Improvement, ARIMA Model Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Semedi Muyanja, Orikiibi Kizza, Kabanda Namugit (2010). Forecasting Yield Improvement in Ugandan District Hospitals Using Time-Series Models: A Methodological Evaluation. African Plant Pathology (Agri/Plant Science), Vol. 2010 No. 1 (2010). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18906156

Keywords

African healthcareTime-series analysisForecastingQuantitative methodsDistrict hospital systemsYield improvementEpidemiological modelling

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Vol. 2010 No. 1 (2010)
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African Plant Pathology (Agri/Plant Science)

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