Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Municipal Water Systems in South Africa,

Municipal water systems in South Africa have faced challenges related to cost-effectiveness over time. The evaluation of these systems often requires robust methods for forecasting and analysis. A time-series forecasting model was employed to analyse expenditure patterns and efficiency metrics. The model incorporates ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology for trend analysis. The model shows a significant upward trend in water supply costs over the period, with an estimated increase of 5% per annum from to . This study provides insights into the cost-effectiveness of municipal water systems and highlights the need for strategic interventions to manage increasing costs. Future research should explore potential solutions, such as infrastructure upgrades and demand management strategies, to mitigate rising costs. Municipal Water Systems, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, Time-Series Forecasting, South Africa The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.