African E-Governance (Administration focus - Public | 26 February 2000
Methodological Evaluation of Manufacturing Plant Systems in Senegal Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Cost-Effectiveness Assessment
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Abstract
Manufacturing plants in Senegal are pivotal for economic growth but face challenges in cost-effectiveness. A comprehensive analysis employing ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model for forecasting costs, with uncertainty quantified through bootstrapping techniques. Data from - across five manufacturing sectors was analysed. The ARIMA model showed an R² of 0.87 and mean absolute error (MAE) within the acceptable range, indicating high predictive accuracy with a ±3% uncertainty interval for cost projections. ARIMA models provide reliable forecasts for manufacturing costs in Senegal, suggesting potential improvements through targeted interventions. Implementing ARIMA-based forecasting can guide investment decisions and policy-making to enhance efficiency in manufacturing sectors. Manufacturing plants, Cost-effectiveness, Time-series analysis, ARIMA model, Forecasting Model estimation used $\hat{\theta}=argmin<em>{\theta}\sum</em>i\ell(y<em>i,f</em>\theta(x<em>i))+\lambda\lVert\theta\rVert</em>2^2$, with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.