Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Life-Cycle Cost Modelling of Access Roadsto South Sudan Oil Fields UnderExtreme Climatic Conditions
Abstract
The access road network serving South Sudan's oil fields in Unity, Jonglei, and Upper Nile States constitutes critical energy-sector infrastructure whose deterioration under extreme tropical rainfall, flooding, and overloaded tanker traffic imposes cascading economic losses on oil production revenues, logistics operators, and road users. Despite its strategic importance, no systematic life-cycle cost (LCC) framework calibrated to South Sudanese climatic and operational conditions has previously been published. This paper develops and applies such a framework, integrating the Net Present Value (NPV) approach with HDM-4 pavement performance modelling, Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) estimation, and Monte Carlo simulation of climatic uncertainty across five oil logistics corridors totalling 1,865 km. Pavement condition surveys on all five routes yielded baseline International Roughness Index (IRI) values of 3.2–6.8 m/km, indicating that two of five routes already exceed acceptable thresholds. Three climate scenarios — baseline (700–900 mm/yr), moderate (+25%), and extreme (+50%) — were combined with two traffic growth trajectories (4% and 6% per annum) to evaluate seven maintenance strategy alternatives over a 30-year analysis period at discount rates of 6%, 8%, and 12%. The minimum-LCC strategy — comprising annual routine maintenance, 8-year periodic 50 mm AC overlay cycles, and a single major rehabilitation at year 20 — delivers a 30-year NPV of USD 980,000–1,420,000/km, representing savings of USD 690,000–1,040,000/km compared to a do-nothing baseline. Sensitivity analysis identifies traffic growth rate, discount rate, and initial construction cost as the three highest-impact parameters, together explaining 38.7% of total NPV variance. An LCC optimisation surface derived f
Read the Full Article
The HTML galley is loaded below for inline reading and better discovery.
How to Cite
Keywords
Research Snapshot
Desktop reading viewReferences
- Amin, Md Al; Pan, Shidong; Zhang, Zhanmin (2022). Pavement maintenance and rehabilitation budget allocation considering multiple objectives and multiple stakeholders. International Journal of Pavement Engineering, 24(2). https://doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2022.2027941
- Bonkoungou, Benjamin; Bossa, Aymar Yaovi; van der Kwast, Johannes; Mul, Marloes; Minoungou, Bernard; Ahoton, Houéwanou David; Yangouliba, Gnibga Issoufou; Houngnibo, Mandela; Sintondji, Luc Ollivier (2025). Assessment of climate change impacts on streamflow in the Inner Niger Delta under CMIP6 scenarios. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 16(4), 1352-1372. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2025.496
- Zofia K. Rybkowski (2009). The Application of Root Cause Analysis and Target Value Design to Evidence-Based Design in the Capital Planning of Healthcare Facilities. OakTrust (Texas A&M University Libraries). https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.4939.3441
- Dimitris S. Argyropoulos; Claudia Crestini; Christian Dahlstrand; Erik Furusjö; Claudio Gioia; Kerstin Jedvert; Gunnar Henriksson; Christian Hulteberg; Martin Lawoko; Clara Pierrou; Joseph S. M. Samec; Elena Subbotina; Henrik Wallmo; Martin Wimby (2023). Kraft Lignin: A Valuable, Sustainable Resource, Opportunities and Challenges. ChemSusChem, 16(23), e202300492-e202300492. https://doi.org/10.1002/cssc.202300492
- Elkhair, Mohamed; Kortukala, Fadwa; Adam, Nada; Gadkreem, Rabaah; Tager, Balgis; Salem, Galeela; Khalifa, Mohamed; younis, Adam; Abouh, Abdulrahman; Adam, Sara; Alasha, Marwah; Ahmed, Hussain (2024). Management and outcomes of patients with diabetic foot ulcers during the Sudan war. Medical Research Updates Journal, 2(2), 46-54. https://doi.org/10.70084/pmrcc.mruj2.21
- Elnourani, Mohamed; Elhag, Hamid Suliman Hamid; Alasad, Waleed Isameldin; Bashier, Mohamed Nasr (2024). Khartoum War's echoes in oil and energy sectors: Economic and environmental implications for Sudan and South Sudan. Heliyon, 10(15), e34739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e34739
- Stites, Elizabeth; Krystalli, Roxani; Humphrey, Alex; Gathuoy, Nyuon Moses (2022). Cattle to cash: Changing marriage practices among displaced people in Bentiu, South Sudan. Women's Studies International Forum, 94, 102632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wsif.2022.102632
- Karatai, Thomas Rukenya; Kaluli, James Wambua; Kabubo, Charles; Thiong’o, George (2017). Soil Stabilization Using Rice Husk Ash and Natural Lime as an Alternative to Cutting and Filling in Road Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(5). https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0001235
- Mas-Coma, Santiago; Cuervo, Pablo F.; Chetri, Purna Bahadur; Tripathi, Timir; Gabrielli, Albis Francesco; Bargues, M. Dolores (2025). Emerging Human Fascioliasis in India: Review of Case Reports, Climate Change Impact, and Geo-Historical Correlation Defining Areas and Seasons of High Infection Risk. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease, 10(5), 123. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed10050123
- Abebe, Yekenalem; Adey, Bryan T.; Tesfamariam, Solomon (2021). Sustainable funding strategies for stormwater infrastructure management: A system dynamics model. Sustainable Cities and Society, 64, 102485. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102485
- Mole, R. H.; Jameson, S. R. (1976). A Sequential Route-Building Algorithm Employing a Generalised Savings Criterion. Operational Research Quarterly (1970-1977), 27(2), 503. https://doi.org/10.2307/3008819
- Qiu, Jian; Huurman, Rien; Frunt, Mark; Vreugdenhil, Bram; Lucas, Jos; Lastra-González, Pedro; Indacochea-Vega, Irune; Castro-Fresno, Daniel (2023). Laboratory and field characterisations of fibre-reinforced porous asphalt: a Dutch case study. Road Materials and Pavement Design, 24(sup1), 608-625. https://doi.org/10.1080/14680629.2023.2181014
- Putatunda, Arunava; Al Haddad, Christelle; Antoniou, Constantinos (2024). A Comprehensive Review of the Socio-Economic Appraisal Methodologies of the Road Safety Measures. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5064629
- Sideris, K; Georgiadis, A; Anagnostopoulos, N; Manita, P; Skarlatos, E (2011). Life cycle cost analysis of reinforced concrete structures cast with self-compacting concrete and normally vibrated concrete. Concrete Solutions 2011. https://doi.org/10.1201/b11585-118
- Bedelian, Claire; Njoroge, Grace; Gathuoy, Nyuon Moses (2025). Women's evolving livelihoods and shifting gender norms in Western Bahr el Ghazal State, South Sudan. https://doi.org/10.61755/wjtc6283
- Iain Paterson; Douglas F. Easton; Catherine M. Corbishley; J-C Gazet (1987). Changing distribution of adenocarcinoma of the stomach. British journal of surgery, 74(6), 481-482. https://doi.org/10.1002/bjs.1800740618
- Tom Tregenza; Nina Wedell (2000). Genetic compatibility, mate choice and patterns of parentage: Invited Review. Molecular Ecology, 9(8), 1013-1027. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-294x.2000.00964.x
- Martina Margorínová; Mária Trojanová; Martin Decký; Eva Remišová (2018). Noise Costs from Road Transport. Civil and Environmental Engineering, 14(1), 12-20. https://doi.org/10.2478/cee-2018-0002
- Marcelo H. Gehlen (2019). The centenary of the Stern-Volmer equation of fluorescence quenching: From the single line plot to the SV quenching map. Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology C Photochemistry Reviews, 42, 100338-100338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jphotochemrev.2019.100338
- Dongwan Kang; Feng Li; Edward Kirton; Ashleigh Thomas; Rob Egan; Hong An; Zhong Wang (2019). MetaBAT 2: an adaptive binning algorithm for robust and efficient genome reconstruction from metagenome assemblies. PeerJ, 7, e7359-e7359. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7359
- Susan Nolen–Hoeksema; Blair E. Wisco; Sonja Lyubomirsky (2008). Rethinking Rumination. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 3(5), 400-424. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6924.2008.00088.x