Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009)

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Machine Learning Models for Climate Prediction and Adaptive Planning in Ghana: An Integrated Approach

Abena Aggrey, Ashesi University Kofi Adomako, Department of Artificial Intelligence, University of Cape Coast Yaw Asamoah, Ashesi University Adwoa Agyei, Ashesi University
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18894921
Published: June 4, 2009

Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture, water resources management, and urban planning in Ghana. Accurate climate predictions are essential for adaptive planning and mitigation strategies. A hybrid ensemble model combining Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) was employed. Model performance was evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) with a 95% confidence interval as uncertainty quantification. RF-XGBoost outperformed baseline models, achieving an MAE of 2.3°C compared to the RF model's 2.8°C and XGBoost’s 2.6°C, indicating improved predictive accuracy in climate forecasting for Ghana. The hybrid ensemble approach demonstrated enhanced robustness and precision in climate predictions, facilitating more informed adaptive planning efforts in Ghana. Future research should focus on integrating additional datasets to further refine the models' performance and explore their application across different regions of Ghana. Machine Learning, Climate Prediction, Ensemble Models, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest Model estimation used $\hat{\theta}=argmin_{\theta}\sum_i\ell(y_i,f_\theta(x_i))+\lambda\lVert\theta\rVert_2^2$, with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.

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How to Cite

Abena Aggrey, Kofi Adomako, Yaw Asamoah, Adwoa Agyei (2009). Machine Learning Models for Climate Prediction and Adaptive Planning in Ghana: An Integrated Approach. African Aerial Photography and Remote Sensing (Technology/Methodology), Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18894921

Keywords

Sub-SaharanGeographic Information SystemsEnsemble ForecastingClimate IndicesMachine Learning AlgorithmsData FusionPredictive Analytics

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Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009)
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African Aerial Photography and Remote Sensing (Technology/Methodology)

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