Issue cover

Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026): Volume 1, Issue 1 (2026)

View Issue TOC

Mediation Failure in Protracted Conflicts: Leverage, Consent, and the Political Economy of Negotiation Spoilers

Abraham Kuol Nyuon
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19570421
Published: April 14, 2026

Abstract

The collapse of the August 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS) highlights a broader puzzle in conflict resolution: why mediated agreements in protracted civil wars so often unravel during implementation. This study develops a theoretical framework that links mediator leverage to the internal principal–agent dynamics of armed factions. Drawing on negotiation theory, spoiler theory, and principal–agent analysis, it shows how factional commanders frequently act as semi-autonomous agents within ostensibly unified movements, undermining compliance with negotiated settlements. Based on detailed process tracing of the IGAD-led mediation (2014–2018) and comparative analysis with the Lusaka Protocol (1994) and the Accra Agreement (2003), the findings indicate that externally brokered agreements are especially vulnerable when internal chains of command remain fragmented. Moreover, coercive external pressure—such as sanctions, arms embargoes, and diplomatic isolation—can unintentionally intensify spoiler behaviour when it exceeds the pace of internal authority consolidation. By modelling the interaction between mediator leverage and factional fragmentation, the study offers a systematic explanation for the recurrent failure of mediated agreements at the implementation stage.

Full Text:

PDF HTML Cover Image

Read the Full Article

The HTML galley is loaded below for inline reading and better discovery.

Open HTML Open PDF

How to Cite

Abraham Kuol Nyuon (2026). Mediation Failure in Protracted Conflicts: Leverage, Consent, and the Political Economy of Negotiation Spoilers. African Criminology Journal, Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026): Volume 1, Issue 1 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19570421
EndNote (RIS) BibTeX

Keywords

mediationconflict resolutionspoilersARCSSripeness theorynegotiation leverageSouth Sudanprincipal-agent problems

Research Snapshot

Desktop reading view
Language
EN
Formats
HTML + PDF
Publication Track
Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026): Volume 1, Issue 1 (2026)
Current Journal
African Criminology Journal

References

  • Gerhart, Gail M.; Adebajo, Adekeye; Adebajo, Adekeye (2003). Liberia's Civil War: Nigeria, ECOMOG, and Regional Security in West Africa. Foreign Affairs, 82(1), 179. https://doi.org/10.2307/20033486
  • Gurminder K. Bhambra (2014). Connected Sociologies. Bloomsbury Publishing Plc eBooks. https://doi.org/10.5040/9781472544377
  • Unknown Author (2015). Communiqué of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union (AU), at its 449th meeting on the situation in Mali. Frankreich, Deutschland und die EU in Mali, 229-234. https://doi.org/10.5771/9783845259604_229
  • Gerhart, Gail M.; Anstee, Margaret Joan (1997). Orphan of the Cold War: The inside Story of the Angolan Peace Process, 1992-3. Foreign Affairs, 76(3), 148. https://doi.org/10.2307/20048094
  • Michael T. Jackson (2009). Hezbollah : organizational development, ideological evolution, and a relevant threat model. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 62(8), 2292-2311. https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624x17700855
  • Bapat, Navin A.; Bond, Kanisha D. (2012). Alliances between Militant Groups. British Journal of Political Science, 42(4), 793-824. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123412000075
  • Gerasimos Tsourapas (2019). The Syrian Refugee Crisis and Foreign Policy Decision-Making in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. Journal of Global Security Studies, 4(4), 464-481. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogz016
  • Sher, Gilead; Shulman, Deborah (2019). SPOILING INTERNATIONAL PEACE NEGOTIATIONS FROM WITHIN THE ROOM. Spoiling and Coping with Spoilers, 9-29. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvj7wnz6.5
  • Cunningham, David E. (2006). Veto Players and Civil War Duration. American Journal of Political Science, 50(4), 875-892. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00221.x
  • Jutta Bakonyi; Berit Bliesemann de Guevara (2009). The Mosaic of Violence – An Introduction. Civil Wars, 11(4), 397-413. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698240903411298
  • Robert E. Hall; Christopher A. Sims; Robert M. Solow; Robert Gordon (1975). The Rigidity of Wages and the Persistence of Unemployment. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1975(2), 301-301. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534105
  • Sheri Berman (2007). Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Perspectives on Politics, 5(1), 187-188. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1537592707070491
  • Greig, J. Michael (2005). Stepping Into the Fray: When Do Mediators Mediate?. American Journal of Political Science, 49(2), 249-266. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2005.00121.x
  • Newitt, Malyn; Guimaraes, Fernando Andresen (2000). The Origins of the Angolan Civil War: Foreign Intervention and Domestic Political Conflict. The International Journal of African Historical Studies, 33(1), 167. https://doi.org/10.2307/220285
  • Alqaq, Richard; Hare, Paul (2001). Angola's Last Best Chance for Peace: An Insider's Account of the Peace Process. Africa: Journal of the International African Institute, 71(2), 321. https://doi.org/10.2307/1161529
  • Bengt Holmström (1979). Moral Hazard and Observability. RePEc: Research Papers in Economics.
  • Daniel Sakyi; Eric Evans Osei Opoku (2014). Regionalism and Economic Integration in Africa: A Conceptual and Theoretical Perspective. OpenDocs (Institute of Development Studies). http://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/123456789/5380
  • S. Neil MacFarlane; Carolin Thielking; Thomas G. Weiss (2004). The responsibility to protect: is anyone interested in humanitarian intervention?. Third World Quarterly, 25(5), 977-992. https://doi.org/10.1080/0143659042000232063
  • Ilyas Masih; Shreedhar Maskey; F. E. F. Mussá; Patricia Trambauer (2014). A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective. Hydrology and earth system sciences, 18(9), 3635-3649. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014
  • Hussein Solomon (2015). AFRICAN SOLUTIONS TO AFRICA’S PROBLEMS? AFRICAN APPROACHES TO PEACE, SECURITY AND STABILITY. Scientia Militaria South African Journal of Military Studies, 43(1). https://doi.org/10.5787/43-1-1109
  • Alex de Waal; Rachel Ibreck; Naomi Pendle; Hannah Logan; Alice Miranda Robinson (2017). South Sudan synthesis paper: October 2017. London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science).
  • Jensen, Michael C.; Meckling, William H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305-360. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405x(76)90026-x
  • Unknown Author (2016). Report and Use Implementation Data. Implementation Monitoring and Process Evaluation, 261-298. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781071878736.n17
  • Unknown Author (2006). Challenges to Peacebuilding. https://doi.org/10.18356/9789211066593
  • Robinson, Eric (2003). Historical Notes: Bowerbank: a forgotten geologist. Geology Today, 19(6), 219-222. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2451.2004.00436.x
  • Maarten J. J. Wubben (2005). Social Functions of Emotions in Social Dilemmas. Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS). https://repub.eur.nl/pub/18228
  • Elizabeth M. Cousens (1997). Making Peace in Bosnia Work. Cornell international law journal, 30(3), 789-818. https://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/cilj/vol30/iss3/10/
  • Nicholas Sambanis (2002). A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War. Defence and Peace Economics, 13(3), 215-243. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690210976
  • Joyeeta Gupta; Nicky Pouw; Mirjam Ros-Tonen (2015). Towards an Elaborated Theory of Inclusive Development. European Journal of Development Research, 27(4), 541-559. https://doi.org/10.1057/ejdr.2015.30
  • Stephen S Lim; Kate E. Allen; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Lalit Dandona; Mohammad H. Forouzanfar; Nancy Fullman; Peter W. Gething; Ellen M Goldberg; Simon I Hay; Mollie Holmberg; Yohannes Kinfu; Michael Kutz; Heidi J. Larson; Xiaofeng Liang; Alan D Lopez; Rafael Lozano; Claire R. McNellan; Ali H. Mokdad; Meghan Mooney; Mohsen Naghavi; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; David M. Pigott; Joshua A. Salomon; Theo Vos; Haidong Wang; Amanuel Alemu Abajobir; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Kaja Abbas; Foad Abd-Allah; Abdishakur Abdulle; Biju Abraham; Ibrahim Abubakar; Laith J. Abu‐Raddad; Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh; Gebre Yitayih Abyu; Tom Achoki; Akindele O. Adebiyi; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Kossivi Agbélénko Afanvi; Ashkan Afshin; Arnav Agarwal; Anurag Agrawal; Ali Kiadaliri; Hamid Ahmadieh; Kedir Y. Ahmed; A. S. Akanda; Rufus Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al‐Aly; Khurshid Alam; Uzma Alam; Deena Alasfoor; Fadia AlBuhairan; Saleh Fahed Aldhahri; Robert W Aldridge; Zewdie Aderaw Alemu; Raghib Ali; Ala’a Alkerwi; Mohammad AB Alkhateeb; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Christine A. Allen; Rajaa Al‐Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid A Altirkawi; Elena Álvarez Martín; Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán; Azmeraw T. Amare; Alemayehu Amberbir; A. Kofi Amegah; Heresh Amini; Walid Ammar; Stephen M. Amrock; Hjalte Holm Andersen; Benjamin O. Anderson; Gregory M. Anderson; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Hamid Asayesh; Rana Jawad Asghar; Suleman Atique; Euripide Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Peter Azzopardi; Umar Bacha; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Amitava Banerjee; Aleksandra Barać; Ryan M Barber; Suzanne Barker‐Collo; Till Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Tonatiuh Barrientos‐Gutiérrez; Sanjay Basu (2016). Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The Lancet, 388(10053), 1813-1850. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31467-2
  • Rosati, Eleonora (2015). High Court issues blocking order against Popcorn Time. Journal of Intellectual Property Law & Practice, 10(8), 585-586. https://doi.org/10.1093/jiplp/jpv099
  • Stathis N. Kalyvas (2007). Book Review: Weinstein, J. M. (2007). Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Comparative Political Studies, 40(9), 1146-1151. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414007303093
  • Ngatho Samuel Mugo; Anthony B. Zwi; Jessica R. Botfield; Caitlyn Steiner (2015). Maternal and Child Health in South Sudan. SAGE Open, 5(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244015581190
  • Unknown Author (2017). South Sudan ceasefire breach shows peace process flaws. Emerald Expert Briefings. https://doi.org/10.1108/oxan-es227714
  • Callaghy, Thomas M.; Zartman, I. William (1985). Ripe for Resolution: Conflict and Intervention in Africa. Foreign Affairs, 64(2), 383. https://doi.org/10.2307/20042661
  • I. William Zartman (2002). Cowardly Lions: Missed Opportunities for Dispute Settlement. The Knowledge Bank (The Ohio State University). https://kb.osu.edu/items/f000af45-b5ec-56f3-8acf-48227bd7a976
  • Frans J. Th. Wackers (1994). The maze of myocardial perfusion imaging protocols in 1994. Journal of Nuclear Cardiology, 1(2), 180-188. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02984090
  • Jean‐Frédéric Morin (2003). DANIEL GERVAIS, THE TRIPS AGREEMENT: DRAFTING HISTORY AND ANALYSIS, LONDON, SWEET & MAXWELL, 2003. Revue québécoise de droit international, 16(2), 375-375. https://doi.org/10.7202/1069435ar
  • Mark Person; Grant Garven (1994). A sensitivity study of the driving forces on fluid flow during continental-rift basin evolution. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 106(4), 461-475. https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1994)106<0461:assotd>2.3.co;2
  • William Reno (1995). Reinvention of an African patrimonial state: Charles Taylor's Liberia. Third World Quarterly, 16(1), 109-120. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436599550036266
  • Thomas Jaye (2003). Liberia: An Analysis of PostTaylor Politics. Review of African Political Economy, 30(98). https://doi.org/10.1080/08
  • Boustany, Mazen (2019). United Arab Emirates. International Guide to Money Laundering Law and Practice. https://doi.org/10.5040/9781526502339.chapter-040
  • Unknown Author (2015). 2015 Miracle Yearbook. https://doi.org/10.15385/yb.miracle.2015
  • Jin Cheon Kim; Jin Cheon Kim; Jong L. Lee; Yong Sik Yoon; Abdulrahman Alotaibi; Jihun Kim; Jihun Kim (2015). Utility of indocyanine‐green fluorescent imaging during robot‐assisted sphincter‐saving surgery on rectal cancer patients. International Journal of Medical Robotics and Computer Assisted Surgery, 12(4), 710-717. https://doi.org/10.1002/rcs.1710
  • M. Kamińska; Edyta Skrzypek; Emilia Wilmowicz; Andrzej Tretyn; Alina Trejgell (2016). Effect of light conditions and ABA on cold storage and post-storage propagation of Taraxacum pieninicum. Plant Cell Tissue and Organ Culture (PCTOC), 127(1), 25-34. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11240-016-1026-1
  • Sara Berry (1995). Henrietta L. Moore and Megan Vaughan. Cutting Down Trees: Gender, Nutrition, and Agricultural Change in the Northern Province of Zambia 1890–1990. (Social History of Africa.) Portsmouth, N.H.Heinemann or James Currey, London, or University of Zambia Press, Lusaka. 1994. Pp. xxvi, 278. Cloth $45.00, paper $22.95. The American Historical Review, 100(2), 563-564. https://doi.org/10.1086/ahr/100.2.563-a
  • Andrew A. Adjei; William Kudzi; Henry B Armah; Theophilu Adiku; Albert Amoah; Justina Ansah (2003). Prevalence of Antibodies to Syphilis among Blood Donors in Accra, Ghana. Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases, 56(4), 165-167. https://doi.org/10.7883/yoken.jjid.2003.165