Vol. 2001 No. 1 (2001)

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Forecasting Risk Reduction in Community Health Centres Systems Using Time-Series Models in Rwanda: A Methodological Evaluation

Kabageni Umuvunwa, University of Rwanda
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18734704
Published: October 19, 2001

Abstract

Community health centres in Rwanda have been established to improve access to healthcare services, but their effectiveness varies over time. A time-series analysis was conducted using historical data from Rwanda's community health centres to forecast future trends in service utilization and healthcare outcomes. The model predicted a steady decline in patient visits by 5% annually, with an uncertainty range of ±2% based on robust standard errors. The time-series forecasting model demonstrated promising results for predicting risk reduction in community health centres, offering a reliable tool for policymakers and planners. Further research should explore the model's applicability across different regions and healthcare systems to validate its generalizability. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Kabageni Umuvunwa (2001). Forecasting Risk Reduction in Community Health Centres Systems Using Time-Series Models in Rwanda: A Methodological Evaluation. African Medical Sociology, Vol. 2001 No. 1 (2001). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18734704

Keywords

RwandaGeographic Information Systems (GIS)Health InformaticsTime-Series AnalysisEpidemiologyPredictive ModellingPublic Health Surveillance

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Vol. 2001 No. 1 (2001)
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African Medical Sociology

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