Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation of Municipal Water Systems in Tanzania

Municipal water systems in Tanzania have faced challenges related to reliability and efficiency over time. The study employed a Box-Jenkins ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) time-series forecasting model to predict future water demand based on historical data from to . The forecasted demand showed an upward trend, indicating potential future shortages if no interventions are made, with a 95% confidence interval around the mean estimate of ±10%. The ARIMA model provided insights into system performance and highlighted areas for improvement in water management strategies. Investment in infrastructure upgrades and demand-side management policies should be prioritised to ensure sustainable municipal water supply. Municipal Water Systems, Time-Series Forecasting, Efficiency Gains, Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.