Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Measuring System Reliability in Rwanda’s District Hospitals

Rwanda’s district hospitals play a critical role in providing healthcare services across the country. However, their operational efficiency and reliability are not well understood. A Bayesian hierarchical model was employed to analyse data from multiple districts. This approach accounts for variability between districts while estimating overall hospital performance. The analysis revealed significant variation in system reliability across different hospitals within the same district, with some showing high efficiency (≥90%) and others low (≤50%). Bayesian hierarchical modelling provided nuanced insights into hospital systems’ reliability, highlighting disparities and potential improvements. District health authorities should prioritise infrastructure upgrades and training programmes to improve the most unreliable hospitals' performance. Hospital Reliability, Bayesian Hierarchical Model, District Hospitals, Rwanda Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.