Vol. 2002 No. 1 (2002)

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Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Ethiopia Using Time-Series Forecasting Models

Muluqet Abebaw, Department of Internal Medicine, Bahir Dar University Tamirat Gebreab, Department of Internal Medicine, Haramaya University
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18742018
Published: November 16, 2002

Abstract

Public health surveillance systems in Ethiopia are crucial for monitoring infectious diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis. However, their effectiveness can be improved through methodological evaluation. A comprehensive search was conducted across multiple databases including PubMed and Scopus. Time-series forecasting models were applied to assess system performance over time. The analysis indicated that the use of ARIMA model forecasts showed significant improvements in predicting disease trends with a confidence interval of ±10%. This review highlights the need for further research into robust forecasting methodologies and continuous improvement strategies for surveillance systems. Public health officials should consider integrating machine learning techniques to enhance predictive accuracy and ensure timely intervention. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Muluqet Abebaw, Tamirat Gebreab (2002). Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Ethiopia Using Time-Series Forecasting Models. African Veterinary Pharmacology, Vol. 2002 No. 1 (2002). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18742018

Keywords

EthiopiaPublic Health SurveillanceTime-Series AnalysisForecasting ModelsMethodologyEpidemiologyEvaluation Studies

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Vol. 2002 No. 1 (2002)
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African Veterinary Pharmacology

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