Vol. 2013 No. 1 (2013)

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Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in South Africa Using Time-Series Forecasting Models

Ntokozwe Qwazi, Department of Public Health, University of Venda Zolani Khumalo, Department of Clinical Research, University of Pretoria Sifiso Maluleke, Department of Epidemiology, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS) South Africa
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18986879
Published: April 19, 2013

Abstract

Public health surveillance systems in South Africa are crucial for monitoring infectious diseases to mitigate their impact on public well-being and resource allocation. A systematic review approach was employed, utilising keywords such as 'public health', 'surveillance', and 'forecasting' to identify relevant studies published between and . Studies were assessed for methodological rigor using predefined criteria. The analysis revealed that a majority of surveillance systems in South Africa employed ARIMA models, with some utilising machine learning techniques. The proportion of studies reporting robust standard errors was noted at approximately 70%. Time-series forecasting models have been widely adopted in South African public health surveillance systems but exhibit variability in methodological rigor and statistical support. Strengthening the adoption of transparent reporting practices and increasing investment in model validation could enhance the reliability and effectiveness of these systems. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Ntokozwe Qwazi, Zolani Khumalo, Sifiso Maluleke (2013). Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in South Africa Using Time-Series Forecasting Models. African Veterinary Pharmacology, Vol. 2013 No. 1 (2013). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18986879

Keywords

Sub-Saharansurveillanceforecastingmethodologyinfectious diseasessystematic reviewpublic health

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Vol. 2013 No. 1 (2013)
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African Veterinary Pharmacology

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