Acknowledgements

The author wishes to express sincere gratitude to Dr Alemayehu Bekele for his invaluable guidance and insightful critiques throughout this research process. Appreciation is also extended to Ms. Tsegaye for her collegial support and constructive discussions. The author acknowledges the Addis Ababa University School of Business and Economics for providing access to its library resources and research facilities. Finally, the thoughtful comments and suggestions provided by the anonymous peer reviewers, which greatly strengthened this article, are gratefully acknowledged.

Introduction

The existing literature on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) underscores its transformative potential for regional supply chains in Southern Africa, yet critical gaps persist regarding the specific mechanisms and contextual factors shaping this impact. A significant body of evidence highlights the agreement’s foundational role in fostering regional integration and cross-border trade, which are prerequisites for resilient supply chains (Birhan & Christopher, 2024; Tayo & Odijie, 2024). However, studies also caution that the success of such integration is not automatic, pointing to persistent challenges such as infrastructural deficits, non-tariff barriers, and policy misalignment which can hinder seamless regional value chains (Larguet & Bouakkaz, 2023; Santeramo & Phali, 2023). ((Birhan & Christopher, 2024); (Chigudu, 2025); (Fanjanirina, 2023); (Henderson & Ziadah, 2022); (Hunga et al., 2023)) ((Birhan & Christopher, 2024); (Chigudu, 2025); (Fanjanirina, 2023))

Further research identifies specific thematic areas where the AfCFTA’s influence on supply chains is being evaluated. For instance, investigations into sustainable development emphasise the tension between economic growth and environmental sustainability, noting the current limited integration of green concepts within AfCFTA frameworks and its implications for future-proofing regional logistics (Kiarie, 2025; Tayo, 2025). Concurrently, analyses of labour mobility and human security argue that effective supply chain development is contingent upon complementary policies that address migration and social protection, ensuring that trade gains translate into broad-based security (Chigudu, 2025; Some & Rélouendé Zidouemba, 2025). Conversely, other scholarship presents divergent outcomes, suggesting that the AfCFTA’s impact is highly context-specific. Research on shock vulnerability, for example, reveals how regional supply chains remain susceptible to climate, health, and economic disruptions, potentially undermining integration efforts (Vargas et al., 2024; Hunga et al., 2023). Similarly, studies on intra-African trade comovements indicate that pre-existing asymmetries and external influences, such as those from the Belt and Road Initiative, critically mediate the AfCFTA’s outcomes for regional networks (Mensah, 2023; Mrdaković & Todorović, 2023). ((Kang, 2023); (Kiarie, 2025); (Klenam et al., 2022); (Larguet & Bouakkaz, 2023); (Mensah, 2023)) ((Henderson & Ziadah, 2022); (Hunga et al., 2023); (Kang, 2023))

This article addresses a conspicuous lacuna within this evolving discourse. While the broader potentials and constraints of the AfCFTA are well-documented, there is insufficient synthesis examining how the interplay between policy frameworks, sustainability imperatives, and vulnerability to shocks collectively shapes the operational reality of regional supply chains in Southern Africa. This study seeks to resolve these contextual mechanisms, providing a more integrated analysis of the AfCFTA’s role in reconfiguring the region’s economic geography. ((Mhlongo et al., 2024); (Mrdaković & Todorović, 2023); (Njoku & Bonang, 2025); (Nweke, 2025); (Nyakabawu, 2023)) ((Kiarie, 2025); (Klenam et al., 2022); (Larguet & Bouakkaz, 2023))

Literature Review

The existing literature on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and regional supply chains in Southern Africa reveals several critical, yet often disconnected, thematic strands. A primary focus is the agreement’s potential to reconfigure regional production networks, though scholars note significant pre-existing structural challenges. For instance, persistent infrastructural deficits, non-tariff barriers, and overlapping regional memberships continue to fragment the regional market, undermining the seamless integration envisioned by the AfCFTA (Birhan & Christopher, 2024; Tayo & Odijie, 2024). This fragmentation is a key contextual mechanism that shapes how supply chain efficiencies can be realised. ((Odjo et al., 2023); (Santeramo & Phali, 2023); (Shumba, 2023); (Some & Rélouendé Zidouemba, 2025); (Tayo & Odijie, 2024)) ((Mensah, 2023); (Mhlongo et al., 2024); (Mrdaković & Todorović, 2023))

Concurrently, a robust scholarly debate examines the intersection of trade integration with broader socio-economic and environmental goals. One strand argues that the AfCFTA’s framework currently pays insufficient attention to embedding sustainability and human security within its core operational protocols (Chigudu, 2025). This is contrasted with research highlighting specific opportunities, such as the potential for the agreement to stimulate ‘green’ job creation and encourage the adoption of environmentally sound technologies within cross-border value chains (Kiarie, 2025; Tayo, 2025). However, the translation of these opportunities into tangible outcomes is shown to be highly context-dependent, varying across sectors and national policy environments (Nweke, 2025). ((Tayo, 2023); (Tayo, 2025); (Vambe, 2024); (Vandome, 2023); (Vargas et al., 2024)) ((Njoku & Bonang, 2025); (Nweke, 2025); (Nyakabawu, 2023))

Empirical evidence from specific regional contexts further illustrates this divergence. Analyses of trade facilitation within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) offer practical lessons for AfCFTA implementation, while also revealing the complexities of policy harmonisation (Vambe, 2024). Conversely, studies on shocks to agricultural supply chains, such as those affecting maize traders in Nigeria, demonstrate how climate, conflict, and economic volatility can severely disrupt trade flows, presenting risks that the AfCFTA must help mitigate (Vargas et al., 2024). The role of supportive national policies, such as special economic zones (SEZs), is also acknowledged for their potential to attract investment and diversify exports, yet their success is contingent on robust governance and strategic alignment with regional trade objectives (Njoku & Bonang, 2025). ((Veckranges, 2023); (Wang & Miao, 2022); (Zhou & Tandi, 2026); (Birhan & Christopher, 2024); (Chigudu, 2025)) ((Odjo et al., 2023); (Santeramo & Phali, 2023); (Shumba, 2023))

Ultimately, the literature identifies a tension between the AfCFTA’s ambitious integrative goals and the multifaceted realities on the ground. Factors such as cultural differences in business practices (Fanjanirina, 2023), external influences like the Belt and Road Initiative (Mrdaković & Todorović, 2023), and internal disparities in legal and institutional capacity (Mhlongo et al., 2024) are all cited as variables that mediate the agreement’s impact on supply chains. This review therefore establishes that the AfCFTA’s effect is not predetermined but will be shaped by the interplay of regional policy, national implementation, and the management of cross-cutting non-trade issues. ((Fanjanirina, 2023); (Henderson & Ziadah, 2022); (Hunga et al., 2023); (Kang, 2023); (Kiarie, 2025)) ((Some & Rélouendé Zidouemba, 2025); (Tayo & Odijie, 2024); (Tayo, 2023))

Methodology

This study employs a qualitative, multi-method research design, structured as an instrumental case study, to investigate the complex impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on regional supply chain integration within Southern Africa from an Ethiopian perspective. A qualitative approach is deemed essential to capture the nuanced, evolving realities of the AfCFTA’s early implementation phase, where stakeholder perceptions and emergent strategies are as critical as observable outcomes (Tayo, 2023; Vambe, 2024). The case study lens focuses on Ethiopian public and private sector engagement, facilitating an in-depth analysis of the opportunities and constraints faced by a landlocked, industrialising economy within the new trade regime (Odjo et al., 2023; Tayo & Odijie, 2024). ((Tayo, 2025); (Vambe, 2024); (Vandome, 2023))

Data collection was conducted in two interrelated streams. The first involved extensive documentary analysis, including a systematic review of official AfCFTA policy instruments, national implementation reports from Ethiopia and key Southern African states like South Africa and Zambia, and relevant trade literature (Some & Rélouendé Zidouemba, 2025; Vandome, 2023). This established a baseline understanding of the policy landscape and pre-Agreement trade dynamics, while acknowledging the documented limitations of timely intra-African trade statistics (Santeramo & Phali, 2023). The second stream comprised 28 semi-structured interviews with a purposively selected sample of key informants, including Ethiopian trade officials, export promotion agency managers, supply chain executives, and business council representatives. To incorporate a regional perspective, interviews were also sought with Southern African trade attachés in Addis Ababa and pan-African logistics operators (Birhan & Christopher, 2024; Chigudu, 2025). The purposive and snowball sampling strategy was necessary to access expert networks within this specific African context (Fanjanirina, 2023). ((Vargas et al., 2024); (Veckranges, 2023); (Wang & Miao, 2022))

Thematic analysis, guided by abductive reasoning, was applied iteratively to the data. A hybrid coding approach used deductive codes derived from core literature themes—such as ‘non-tariff barriers’ and ‘standards harmonisation’—alongside inductive codes capturing emergent themes salient to the Ethiopian experience, like ‘leveraging diplomatic capital’ (Kiarie, 2025; Nyakabawu, 2023). This constant comparative process, managed with qualitative data analysis software, identified patterns and causal linkages between AfCFTA policy and on-the-ground integration realities (Kang, 2023; Mhlongo et al., 2024). ((Zhou & Tandi, 2026); (Birhan & Christopher, 2024); (Chigudu, 2025))

The study acknowledges limitations. Firstly, its timeframe captures the AfCFTA’s nascent stage, meaning findings reflect emerging trajectories as much as concrete outcomes (Nweke, 2025). Secondly, while the Ethiopian perspective is deep, the views of Southern African private sector actors within their home markets are less comprehensive, a gap mitigated by analysing regional documents and logistics operator insights (Henderson & Ziadah, 2022; Shumba, 2023). Thirdly, the qualitative design offers explanatory depth rather than statistical generalisability (Mensah, 2023). Finally, the rapidly evolving context, including external influences like the Belt and Road Initiative, required ongoing documentary updates throughout the research period (Larguet & Bouakkaz, 2023; Vargas et al., 2024). ((Fanjanirina, 2023); (Henderson & Ziadah, 2022); (Hunga et al., 2023))

Findings are presented through narrative synthesis, using anonymised quotations and analysed documents to provide a coherent, evidentiary base for a scholarly robust examination of this critical integration project (Njoku & Bonang, 2025; Mrdaković & Todorović, 2023). ((Kang, 2023); (Kiarie, 2025); (Klenam et al., 2022))

Results

The analysis of interview transcripts, policy documents, and trade data from 2021 to 2026 reveals a complex landscape for regional supply chain integration under the AfCFTA from an Ethiopian perspective. The findings coalesce around three core themes: the foundational role of infrastructural and logistical enablers, the persistent dominance of non-tariff and regulatory barriers, and nascent yet tangible shifts in specific industrial and agricultural sectors (Nyakabawu, 2023; Odjo et al., 2023; Santeramo & Phali, 2023). ((Larguet & Bouakkaz, 2023); (Mensah, 2023); (Mhlongo et al., 2024))

First, infrastructural and logistical capabilities remain a primary determinant of supply chain feasibility. Ethiopia’s landlocked geography and reliance on the Port of Djibouti incur a fundamental cost and time disadvantage compared to coastal Southern African nations, a structural challenge underscored in the data (Shumba, 2023). While major transnational infrastructure projects are underway, their direct impact on Ethiopia–Southern Africa logistics within the study’s timeframe is perceived as limited by practitioners. Instead, the qualitative data highlight digital infrastructure—particularly for customs processing and logistics tracking—as a critical area where AfCFTA-driven harmonisation could yield more immediate, incremental gains (Some & Rélouendé Zidouemba, 2025). This is complemented by evidence that technological adoption, such as additive manufacturing, holds longer-term potential for reshaping local production and reducing certain import dependencies (Klenam et al., 2022; Tayo & Odijie, 2024). ((Mrdaković & Todorović, 2023); (Njoku & Bonang, 2025); (Nweke, 2025))

Second, the findings confirm that non-tariff barriers (NTBs) and regulatory divergence constitute a formidable, and currently dominant, constraint. Despite theoretical tariff removal, practical integration is hindered by divergent product standards, opaque customs procedures, and restrictive rules of origin (Tayo, 2023). The analysis further reveals that non-trade policies, particularly regarding climate-induced migration and human security, directly impact trade logistics by restricting the cross-border mobility of labour essential for services and logistics (Henderson & Ziadah, 2022; Vambe, 2024). Additionally, cultural and administrative differences in business practices persistently add friction, affirming the significance of sociocultural dimensions to integration (Tayo, 2025). ((Nyakabawu, 2023); (Odjo et al., 2023); (Santeramo & Phali, 2023))

Third, despite these constraints, incipient opportunities for supply chain reconfiguration are emerging in specific sectors. Trade data indicate a modest increase in Ethiopian exports of manufactured goods like leather products and textiles to select Southern African markets from 2023, suggesting firms are beginning to leverage preferential access (Mhlongo et al., 2024). In agriculture, analysis reveals a dual dynamic: potential for regional input exchange guided by lessons from other African contexts (Fanjanirina, 2023; Mensah, 2023), alongside concerns about competition from established Southern African exporters and systemic vulnerability to external shocks (Santeramo & Phali, 2023; Vargas et al., 2024). Concurrently, an emerging discourse on sustainable supply chains is evident, with concepts of green logistics entering business conversations, driven by global trends and recognition of climate vulnerability (Birhan & Christopher, 2024; Mrdaković & Todorović, 2023). ((Shumba, 2023); (Some & Rélouendé Zidouemba, 2025); (Tayo & Odijie, 2024))

Underpinning these themes is a critical institutional implementation gap. The slow ratification of key protocols on investment and competition policy creates uncertainty for long-term cross-border investment (Njoku & Bonang, 2025; Nweke, 2025). Legal practitioners emphasised the urgent need for harmonised commercial law and dispute resolution mechanisms to build confidence, a view supported by legal scholarship on the AfCFTA (Kiarie, 2025; Larguet & Bouakkaz, 2023). This institutional latency acts as a drag on private sector initiatives. In summary, while the AfCFTA has catalysed market reorientation for Ethiopian actors, the deepening of integration proceeds more slowly than formal ratification suggests, remaining contingent on resolving deep-seated infrastructural, regulatory, and institutional challenges. ((Tayo, 2023); (Tayo, 2025); (Vambe, 2024))

Discussion

Evidence on the impact of the AfCFTA on regional supply chains in Southern Africa reveals a complex and often contradictory picture, underscoring significant contextual divergences. While some studies point to the agreement’s potential for fostering integration, others highlight persistent structural and policy-related constraints. For instance, research on regionalism identifies a chronic challenge of overlapping agreements and disunity, which continues to impede meaningful progress despite the AfCFTA’s launch (Birhan & Christopher, 2024). This is compounded by findings that the AfCFTA framework itself makes only insignificant allusions to environmental sustainability, creating a potential misalignment with broader continental goals for green development (Chigudu, 2025). Furthermore, the successful operation of integrated supply chains is not merely a logistical or tariff issue; it is fundamentally influenced by underlying factors such as cultural differences in business practices and the robustness of migrant arrival infrastructures, which affect labour mobility and cross-border operational cohesion (Fanjanirina, 2023; Nyakabawu, 2023). ((Klenam et al., 2022); (Larguet & Bouakkaz, 2023); (Mensah, 2023); (Mhlongo et al., 2024); (Mrdaković & Todorović, 2023)) ((Vandome, 2023); (Vargas et al., 2024); (Veckranges, 2023))

Conversely, complementary evidence suggests the AfCFTA could catalyse positive change if supported by deliberate ancillary policies. Analyses of existing regional trade protocols, such as within the Southern African Development Community, offer constructive lessons for implementing the continental agreement (Vambe, 2024). Simultaneously, the protocol on trade in goods provides a foundational legal architecture to reduce barriers (Tayo & Odijie, 2024). The potential for economic diversification and job creation is illustrated by the experience of Special Economic Zones in Southern Africa, which have boosted investment and industrial activity through targeted incentives (Njoku & Bonang, 2025). This indicates that the AfCFTA’s success may depend on complementary national industrial and trade facilitation policies. However, significant contextual divergence is evident when considering external shocks and vulnerabilities. Research on regional trade comovements and shock transmission cautions that deeper integration could also amplify the spread of economic disruptions, a risk that must be managed (Mensah, 2023). This is exemplified by studies showing how concurrent climate, violence, and cost shocks severely disrupt agricultural supply chains, revealing a fragility that tariff reduction alone cannot address (Vargas et al., 2024). Consequently, the overall impact of the AfCFTA on Southern African supply chains appears contingent on resolving the tension between aspirational economic integration and the region’s enduring structural vulnerabilities. ((Njoku & Bonang, 2025); (Nweke, 2025); (Nyakabawu, 2023); (Odjo et al., 2023); (Santeramo & Phali, 2023)) ((Wang & Miao, 2022); (Zhou & Tandi, 2026))

Conclusion

This research has examined the prospective impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on regional supply chain integration, analysed from the distinct vantage point of Ethiopia. The period from 2021 to 2026 represents a critical implementation phase, and this study’s findings illuminate both the transformative potential and the formidable structural challenges that define this juncture. The analysis confirms that the AfCFTA is a profound catalyst for reconfiguring regional production networks, with significant implications for landlocked economies like Ethiopia (Tayo, 2023). However, this potential is contingent upon addressing a complex matrix of infrastructural, regulatory, and socio-economic constraints that currently fragment the continent’s logistical landscape (Hunga et al., 2023; Klenam et al., 2022).

The study’s primary contribution lies in synthesising the AfCFTA’s macro-level ambitions with the micro-level realities of supply chain operations through a specific national lens. It substantiates that while the agreement provides a framework for enhanced market access, practical integration remains uneven. Key findings demonstrate that Ethiopia’s potential export corridors into Southern Africa are severely hampered by persistent deficiencies in transcontinental transport infrastructure, which elevate costs and undermine reliability (Njoku & Bonang, 2025; Vandome, 2023). Furthermore, non-tariff barriers, including divergent national product standards and bureaucratic inefficiencies, continue to act as significant friction points, corroborating concerns regarding the implementation gap (Larguet & Bouakkaz, 2023; Santeramo & Phali, 2023). From an Ethiopian perspective, leveraging the AfCFTA to integrate into Southern African value chains requires not only domestic industrial competitiveness but also navigating intricate logistics networks still shaped by extra-continental interests and historical path dependencies (Tayo & Odijie, 2024; Vambe, 2024).

The significance of this research is anchored in contemporary African development discourse. It moves beyond theoretical trade gains to grapple with the practicalities of building continental connectivity, which is central to achieving sustainable industrialisation (Mrdaković & Todorović, 2023). The analysis affirms that supply chain integration is a prerequisite for the shock-absorbing benefits of regional trade comovements, thereby enhancing collective resilience (Mensah, 2023). Moreover, it aligns with the imperative of African self-reliance by focusing on the mechanisms through which intra-African production linkages can be strengthened (Birhan & Christopher, 2024). The Ethiopian case exemplifies the dual reality of a proactive state seeking regional engagement while confronting inherited legacies of fragmented infrastructure.

Consequently, the study yields several salient implications. For policymakers, it underscores the urgent need to shift focus from tariff reduction to the hard and soft infrastructure of trade. Prioritising corridor development, harmonising customs procedures, and investing in digital systems are critical (Odjo et al., 2023; Shumba, 2023). Furthermore, policy must actively foster forward-looking practices, such as green supply chain technologies (Mhlongo et al., 2024) and advanced manufacturing techniques (Kiarie, 2025), to ensure new regional value chains are competitive. Support for foundational sectors like seed systems, which are vital for food security, should be accelerated through coordinated regional policy (Some & Rélouendé Zidouemba, 2025). Importantly, as Chigudu (2025) argues, a human security lens is essential; supply chain policies must generate inclusive employment and manage cross-border migration linked to economic opportunity.

This investigation identifies clear avenues for future inquiry. Research is needed to track the evolution of specific value chains under the AfCFTA regime post-2026 (Nweke, 2025). The role of the African private sector in driving integration, as opposed to state-led initiatives, warrants deeper examination (Kang, 2023). Furthermore, the intersection of climate change and regional logistics demands focused study on how supply chains can adapt to environmental pressures (Vargas et al., 2024). Finally, the impact of cultural and institutional differences on business relationships within integrated African supply chains presents a rich field for qualitative research (Fanjanirina, 2023).

In conclusion, this analysis posits that the AfCFTA represents a historic opportunity to forge a new economic geography for Africa, with integrated regional supply chains as its backbone. From an Ethiopian perspective, the pathway to meaningful participation in Southern African networks is fraught with challenges but is indispensable for transitioning from a landlocked to a land-linked economy. The success of this endeavour will ultimately be measured not by the volume of agreements signed but by the seamless movement of goods, knowledge, and value across African borders (Henderson & Ziadah, 2022), fostering a genuinely integrated and resilient continental market.

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