Hydrological Diplomacy and Community Resilience: A Survey Analysis of Water Scarcity and Conflict Mitigation in the Ethiopian Nile Basin (2021–2026)

This survey research article investigates the critical nexus between water scarcity and localised conflict in the Ethiopian Nile Basin, analysing the role of community-led water management as a form of ‘hydrological diplomacy’ in fostering resilience. It addresses a significant gap by empirically examining how grassroots governance mechanisms mitigate resource-based tensions amidst regional hydropolitical developments. Employing a sequential mixed-methods approach, quantitative and qualitative data were collected between 2023 and 2025 from 420 randomly sampled households and 60 purposively selected key informants across three conflict-prone *woredas* (districts) in the Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. Findings demonstrate that acute water scarcity, exacerbated by climatic variability and upstream agricultural demands, is a primary driver of inter-communal disputes. Crucially, the research identifies that communities with inclusive, women-integrated water committees and established traditional negotiation protocols reported a 40% higher success rate in conflict de-escalation and more equitable water distribution. Statistical analysis confirms this correlation is significant. These local institutions function as essential diplomatic channels, transforming potential points of confrontation into forums for cooperation. The study concludes that reinforcing these indigenous governance structures is paramount for sustainable peacebuilding. It argues that national and transboundary water policies must formally recognise and integrate these community-based systems to enhance socio-ecological resilience, advocating for a bottom-up approach to water governance in the Basin.