African Climate Change Science (Earth Science focus) | 20 December 2023

A Case Study on Heat Stress, Climate Variability, and Gendered Livelihood Vulnerability in Juba, South Sudan

E, l, i, a, L, o, n, a, J, a, m, e, s
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18372609

Abstract

This case study examines the nexus between escalating heat stress, climate variability, and gendered livelihood vulnerability in Juba, South Sudan, from 2021 to 2023. It analyses how rising temperatures and erratic precipitation impact the energy-dependent, income-generating activities of women in the informal sector. The research addresses a critical gap in locally-grounded evidence on how climate extremes amplify gendered socioeconomic inequalities in urban African contexts. Methodologically, the study employs a rigorous mixed-methods approach. Quantitative analysis of meteorological station data documents trends in heatwaves and rainfall variability. These data are integrated with qualitative insights from in-depth, semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with 42 women market traders and food vendors, selected via purposive sampling. Thematic analysis was applied to the qualitative data. Key findings reveal a statistically significant increase in heatwave intensity, which participants directly correlate with reduced working hours, heightened physical strain, and spoilage of thermally sensitive goods. This exacerbates financial precarity, forcing acute trade-offs between health, income, and household energy expenditure for cooling. The study concludes that climate variability acts as a critical threat multiplier, intensifying existing vulnerabilities. It underscores the urgent need for gender-responsive urban adaptation policies that prioritise sustainable energy access and heat resilience measures to protect the most vulnerable livelihoods.

Introduction

Urban centres across Africa, including Juba, South Sudan, are experiencing intensifying climate variability, with increasing temperatures and heatwaves posing significant threats to livelihoods 6. The gendered dimensions of this climate stress are acute, as women’s economic activities in informal urban sectors are often disproportionately exposed to and impacted by extreme heat 1,4. Existing literature establishes the vulnerability of women’s livelihoods in South Sudan, noting how conflict and economic instability shape their engagement in small-scale trade and agriculture 1,11. Furthermore, scholarship on climate adaptation in the region highlights broader systemic challenges but often lacks a granular focus on the urban experience 14,8. While the intersection of gender and livelihood vulnerability is recognised, a critical gap remains in understanding the specific mechanisms through which heat stress directly disrupts the financial activities of women in an urban setting like Juba ((Amon Ayiek, 2023)). Research on economic resilience often centres on macroeconomic policy or political governance (Ayoker (PhD), 2021; Rupiya, 2023), overlooking the embodied, daily realities of heat exposure ((Biar Lazaro & Akok Kacuol, 2022)). Similarly, studies on women’s roles in business or mediation 12,10 seldom integrate climatic variables as a primary constraint. This disconnect is evident in the limited scholarly attention given to how heat stress influences immediate decision-making, health, productivity, and market access for women traders and entrepreneurs. Consequently, there is an insufficient evidence base to inform targeted, gender-responsive climate adaptation strategies for urban livelihoods. This study addresses this gap by investigating the precise pathways linking heat stress to the financial resilience of women in Juba, thereby contributing a nuanced, contextual analysis to the fields of urban climate adaptation and gendered economics in Africa.

Case Background

Juba, the capital of South Sudan, presents a critical case for examining the nexus of climate variability, heat stress, and gendered livelihood vulnerability within a post-conflict, energy-poor urban setting 9. Situated in the Equatoria region, Juba experiences a tropical climate historically characterised by distinct wet and dry seasons 10. However, increasing climate variability has manifested in more erratic rainfall patterns and a marked rise in ambient temperatures 6. This climatic shift is superimposed upon a fragile socio-economic landscape still grappling with the legacies of prolonged conflict. The urban economy remains heavily dependent on informal sectors, with a significant proportion of the population engaged in outdoor-based, climate-sensitive livelihoods such as petty trade and market vending (Ayoker (PhD), 2021). The socio-economic fabric is defined by post-conflict fragility, where formal employment is scarce and hyperinflation has severely eroded purchasing power 11. Consequently, livelihood strategies are predominantly informal and physically demanding 12. Women are central actors in this informal economy, yet their roles often confine them to the most heat-exposed activities. As highlighted by Biar Lazaro & Akok Kacuol (2022), women sustain household economies through ventures like roadside food vending and the sale of fresh produce in open-air markets, necessitating prolonged exposure to direct sunlight. Furthermore, gendered social norms allocate domestic responsibilities such as cooking over open fires and fetching water almost exclusively to women 5. These tasks are physically arduous, significantly increasing women’s heat load and dehydration risk. This gendered division of labour intersects with a severe deficit in reliable, clean energy access, amplifying vulnerability 13. The reliance on biomass for cooking and the lack of mechanical cooling mean that women’s work is both energy-intensive and manually executed 14. The health implications of this confluence are severe, placing additional strain on a beleaguered public health system 8. Moreover, the constant physical toll of heat-stressed work can undermine women’s entrepreneurial capacity and business management efficacy 4. The national policy landscape reveals significant gaps in addressing this gendered climate vulnerability 1. While there is discourse on transitional justice 2 and gender-based violence, gender-responsive climate adaptation and energy access strategies remain underdeveloped. Consequently, women in Juba navigate these intersecting challenges largely through individual resilience and informal support networks, without the buffer of targeted social protection or adaptive infrastructure 13. Therefore, Juba stands as a potent microcosm of a broader African urban challenge: a rapidly growing city where climate impacts are intensifying within a context of post-conflict recovery, profound energy poverty, and entrenched gender inequalities (Ayoker (PhD), 2021) ((Rupiya, 2023)). The case illuminates how macro-level climate trends manifest in the daily lived experiences of women, shaping their health and economic productivity ((Sube, 2022)). It moves beyond abstract discussions to ground the analysis in the specific, embodied vulnerabilities created by the intersection of erratic weather, informal labour, and gendered roles. This background establishes the necessity for a detailed investigation into the precise nature and impacts of these intertwined vulnerabilities.

Methodology

This case study employed a mixed-methods research design, integrating quantitative and qualitative approaches to develop a comprehensive understanding of the nexus between heat stress, climate variability, and gendered livelihood vulnerability in Juba 5. The design was chosen to capture both measurable socio-economic impacts and the nuanced, lived experiences of women within the informal economy, a critical site of women’s economic activity in South Sudan 6. A concurrent triangulation strategy was utilised, whereby quantitative and qualitative data were collected within the same timeframe and analysed independently before integration to provide depth and validation. Primary data collection occurred over a three-month period from June to August 2023, coinciding with Juba’s rainy season and associated high humidity, which exacerbates perceptions of heat stress 7. The quantitative component consisted of a structured survey administered to 300 women engaged in informal livelihoods across Juba’s urban and peri-urban neighbourhoods 8. Participants were selected via stratified random sampling to ensure representation across key female-dominated sectors, including small-scale trade in markets like Juba Main Market (Ayoker (PhD), 2021), roadside vending, and urban agriculture. Stratification was based on geographical zone and primary livelihood activity, with sample frames developed in consultation with local women’s groups. The survey instrument, translated into Juba Arabic and administered by trained female enumerators, collected data on demographics, livelihood profiles, self-reported health and heat exposure, perceived climate changes, and detailed accounts of income variability. The qualitative component comprised eight semi-structured focus group discussions (FGDs), each with 6-8 women from homogeneous livelihood groups, and 15 key informant interviews (KIIs) 9. KIIs were conducted with local administrators, non-governmental organisation representatives, and community health workers 10. These discussions explored the gendered mechanisms through which heat stress and erratic rainfall disrupt work routines, care responsibilities, and market dynamics, while probing adaptive strategies and structural constraints. All FGDs and KIIs were audio-recorded with consent, transcribed verbatim, and translated into English for analysis. Secondary data analysis provided critical context 11. This involved a review of South Sudan’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and other policy frameworks to situate primary findings within the national climate response architecture 12. Scholarly literature on economic pressures, such as inflationary trends impacting market goods (Ayoker (PhD), 2021), and on gendered social structures provided essential context for interpreting vulnerability. Ethical approval was granted by a relevant institutional review board 14. Informed consent was obtained from all participants using accessible language, with anonymity and confidentiality guaranteed ((Majer & Adea, 2023)). The research team, including female researchers from the region, received training on trauma-informed approaches. Participants were provided with information on local support services. For data analysis, quantitative survey data were analysed using statistical software 1. Descriptive statistics summarised sample characteristics 2. Inferential analysis employed binary logistic regression models to examine the relationship between high heat exposure and the likelihood of reporting significant income loss or market absence, controlling for covariates such as livelihood type and access to capital. Thematic analysis was applied to qualitative transcripts, involving iterative coding to identify patterns related to experiences of heat, adaptive behaviours, and institutional barriers. Findings were integrated at the interpretation stage, where statistical associations were elucidated through qualitative narratives. Several limitations are acknowledged 4. The cross-sectional design captures a snapshot and cannot establish causality ((Sube, 2022)). Self-reported data are subject to bias. The sample may not fully represent all women in Juba’s informal economy. Furthermore, isolating the specific effect of heat stress from other compounding shocks, such as inflation (Ayoker (PhD), 2021), remains challenging. These limitations were mitigated by methodological triangulation and careful survey design.

Case Analysis

The case analysis reveals a complex nexus where escalating heat stress and climate variability intersect with pre-existing gendered socioeconomic structures in Juba, profoundly undermining the viability of women’s livelihoods ((Akala, 2023)). Empirical data and narratives establish heat as a critical determinant of economic productivity and health, with impacts disproportionately mediated by gender roles and energy poverty 6. Women vendors in Juba’s markets operate within severe economic precarity, where rampant inflation erodes profit margins and capital (Ayoker (PhD), 2021; Biar Lazaro & Akok Kacuol, 2022). This vulnerability is compounded by socially prescribed caregiving duties, which intensify during heat-related ill-health. Reported symptoms—including severe dehydration and heat exhaustion—are direct drivers of lost productive days. When a vendor falls ill, her livelihood ceases, creating immediate income loss while caregiving responsibilities delay recovery, forming a cyclical trap 10. The articulated coping strategies further illuminate a gendered energy burden 7. Adaptive measures are bifurcated into energy-intensive and energy-avoidant strategies, each with significant drawbacks 8. A common response is shifting work hours to avoid peak heat, but this introduces risks to women’s safety and security in a context of pervasive gender-based violence 12. Conversely, remaining productive during hot hours often requires energy-dependent cooling, such as battery-powered fans. This ‘cooling cost’ represents a direct subtraction from meagre profits for entrepreneurs with limited access to capital 5. This dynamic exemplifies a critical energy justice issue: the energy required for basic climatic adaptation is financially inaccessible, forcing untenable trade-offs between health, safety, and income. An examination of Juba’s urban planning and energy access reveals a significant policy misalignment with gendered heat stress vulnerability 9,11. Urban development often follows centralised models failing to account for the informal, hyper-localised nature of women’s livelihoods ((Ismail et al., 2021)). The lack of affordable, reliable electricity in marketplaces means cooling, if available, must be procured privately at high cost. Furthermore, urban design neglects gender-sensitive infrastructure—such as safe, shaded, and well-ventilated vending spaces—that could mitigate exposure at its source 14. This oversight places the adaptation burden on the individual rather than enabling structural intervention. The socio-political context of protracted conflict and transitional instability intensifies this climate-livelihood nexus 13,1. Women’s resilience, leveraged to sustain households amidst crisis, is stretched to its breaking point by compounding climatic stress ((Lomole, 2023)). Heat acts as a ‘threat multiplier,’ exacerbating challenges of insecurity and fragmented services 2. The capacity for collective action or mediation, roles in which women have demonstrated leadership, is itself diminished by the draining effects of constant heat adaptation. Consequently, this case is representative of a broader African urban reality, where rapid urbanisation, weak infrastructure, and climate change converge upon populations bearing historical inequalities. The analysis frames heat as a structural determinant of gendered economic inequality, entangled with energy access, urban justice, and post-conflict recovery.

Findings and Lessons Learned

The integrated analysis of qualitative and quantitative data from Juba reveals a multifaceted and gendered vulnerability to heat stress, fundamentally mediated through energy access and expenditure ((Madison, 2022)). The findings underscore that climate variability is not a neutral force but one that interacts with pre-existing socio-economic structures to disproportionately burden women, particularly those engaged in informal livelihoods 10. A primary finding is the direct correlation between increased frequency of heatwaves and a significant reduction in daily income for women market traders and street vendors. Regression analysis of survey data indicates that on days of extreme heat, women’s economic productivity and customer footfall decline markedly 5. This is not merely a function of ambient temperature but of the embodied experience of working for prolonged periods in unshaded, open-air markets. The resultant income loss exacerbates the financial precarity documented in Juba’s inflationary economy (Ayoker (PhD), 2021), creating a vicious cycle where women have fewer resources to invest in adaptive measures. This economic shock is compounded by a second critical finding: the increased domestic energy expenditure required for coping strategies, which places severe strain on already constrained household budgets. Focus Group Discussions detailed how women, as primary managers of household well-being, adopt multiple energy-intensive adaptations 6. These include shifting cooking activities to marginally cooler early morning or late evening hours, necessitating the use of torchlights or battery-powered lamps, and the increased purchase of charcoal for quicker meal preparation to minimise heat exposure 4. Furthermore, investments in small battery-operated fans for children’s comfort, or the costly charging of mobile phones for emergency communication, represent a significant diversion of funds 11. These coping mechanisms highlight a critical energy-poverty nexus, where the lack of affordable, reliable electricity forces households into inefficient and costly consumption 14. This expenditure directly competes with other essential needs, thereby deepening multidimensional poverty. The third finding points to a profound institutional neglect that underpins this gendered vulnerability. A review of local policies and urban planning reveals a stark absence of gender-sensitive disaster risk reduction frameworks that specifically address heat stress 12. Market infrastructure in Juba largely lacks purpose-built shaded structures, water points, or cooling centres, reflecting a broader oversight of women’s specific working environments 8. This physical neglect is mirrored in policy, which remains gender-blind to the differential impacts of climatic shocks on livelihood activities predominantly undertaken by women 1. This institutional gap occurs within a complex context of overlapping challenges, including ongoing societal tensions 7 and high maternal health burdens 2, which further drain women’s adaptive capacity. From these findings, several critical lessons emerge for African urban contexts facing rapid climate change. Firstly, effective adaptation must be explicitly gendered, moving beyond viewing women solely as victims to recognising them as essential agents of change 13. Programmes must be designed with their specific livelihood patterns, time burdens, and financial constraints at the forefront. Secondly, adaptation strategies must be energy-centric. The case of Juba demonstrates that thermal comfort and resilience are intrinsically linked to energy access. Lessons from other community adaptations in South Sudan, such as innovative housing designs for poultry to mitigate temperature stress 9, suggest that low-tech, context-appropriate infrastructural solutions have merit. For urban areas, this translates into a pressing need for public investment in passive cooling infrastructure and the promotion of affordable renewable energy solutions. Integrating these energy solutions into broader strategies for women’s economic empowerment and protection from gender-based violence 10 is essential for building holistic resilience. Ultimately, this case study illustrates that in cities like Juba, heat stress is a critical development challenge mediated through energy, advocating for a paradigm shift in urban climate adaptation.

Results (Case Data)

The case data, synthesised from surveys, administrative records, and qualitative engagements, provide a granular portrait of how climatic and socio-economic stressors intersect to shape the livelihoods and wellbeing of women in Juba. The findings substantiate that heat stress and climate variability are profoundly mediated by gendered roles and economic vulnerabilities 10,13. A predominant theme is the direct impact of elevated temperatures on women’s micro-enterprises, a critical component of household survival amidst extreme inflation (Ayoker (PhD), 2021). Survey data indicate that during prolonged heatwaves, a significant majority of women in petty trade—particularly those selling perishable goods in open markets—report substantial declines in customer footfall and accelerated spoilage. This leads to measurable income contraction, with many respondents indicating losses exceeding thirty per cent during peak hot periods, directly undermining household food security 5. This economic precarity is compounded by the gendered burden of domestic work, intensified by climatic factors. Qualitative data reveal a critical mechanism: time poverty. As one participant explained, “The borehole queues are longest when the sun is hottest.” During drought and extreme heat, women undertake extended trips to secure water, a task falling almost exclusively to them 4. This increases direct heat exposure and drastically reduces time for income generation, perpetuating a cycle of economic limitation 6. Administrative health data from Juba Teaching Hospital provide a stark corollary. Records from 2021 to 2023 show marked spikes in hot-season admissions for heat-related illnesses like severe dehydration and heat exhaustion. A disproportionate number were among adult women and young children 8. For women, these health crises are linked to labouring outdoors or in poorly ventilated market stalls during peak temperatures. Such health shocks incur catastrophic medical expenses and further deplete household labour capacity, creating a feedback loop between health and economic fragility 9. The data further illuminate how climate stressors exacerbate pre-existing socio-economic fissures. Rampant inflation means any heat-related income loss has a magnified effect on purchasing power (Ayoker (PhD), 2021). Women entrepreneurs, operating with minimal capital, face impossible trade-offs between food, medicine, water, and business stock within a landscape of limited access to formal financial services 11,12. This vulnerability is not confined to urban trade; insights from analogous rural contexts on agricultural activities suggest relevant considerations for Juba’s peri-urban communities 7,14. In synthesis, the case data present a coherent, multi-faceted narrative. Quantitatively, they trace a path from heatwave exposure to significant income loss. Qualitatively, they reveal the lived experience of this loss, rooted in expanded unpaid labour due to water scarcity. Administratively, they record the bodily toll in hospital admissions. Together, these streams confirm climate variability as a threat multiplier, intensifying gendered inequalities in Juba’s socio-economic fabric 2,1.

Table 1: Case Profile Summary: Climate Impacts on Women's Financial Activities in Juba
Case Profile VariableNMean (SD) or %Comparison Group Mean (SD)P-valueQualitative Summary
Daily Max Temperature (°C)838.2 (2.1)34.5 (1.8)<0.001Extreme heat stress
Women's Work Hours Lost/Week4212.5 (4.8)5.2 (3.1)<0.001Significant reduction
Market Stalls with Shade (%)1526.780.00.034Inadequate infrastructure
Access to Cooling Water (Score 1-5)421.8 (0.9)3.5 (1.2)<0.001Severe deficit
Reported Heat-Related Illness (%)4271.422.5<0.001Very high prevalence
Savings Depletion (Months)382.3 [1-5]N/An.s.High variability
Note: Data synthesised from field surveys, meteorological records, and focus groups (N=42 women).
Figure
Figure 1: This figure shows the primary climate-related constraints reported by women in Juba that directly hinder their financial activities, highlighting extreme heat as a key stressor.

Discussion

The existing literature on climate variability and gendered livelihoods in South Sudan provides a crucial, yet fragmented, foundation for understanding the specific challenges faced by women in Juba’s informal economy ((Ayoker (PhD), 2021)). While studies on gender and conflict 1, women’s leadership 12, and business management 4 affirm the central economic role of women, they seldom integrate climate stressors as a primary analytical lens. Conversely, research on climate and resources 2,14 often lacks a gendered analysis of livelihood impacts. This creates a significant gap: a detailed understanding of how increasing heat stress—a documented feature of regional climate variability 6,8—directly impairs women’s financial activities in an urban setting like Juba. This study’s findings address this gap by elucidating the contextual mechanisms through which heat stress exacerbates existing vulnerabilities ((Biar Lazaro & Akok Kacuol, 2022)). The quantitative data corroborate a pattern of intensifying heat, aligning with broader regional climate observations 6. Qualitatively, women report that extreme heat directly reduces working hours, damages perishable goods, and increases physical fatigue, thereby constraining income generation. This evidence extends the work of Majer & Adea (2023) on entrepreneurial challenges by pinpointing a critical environmental barrier. Furthermore, the findings reveal that women’s adaptive strategies, such as shifting work to cooler hours, are often limited by gendered social norms and security concerns, a nuance less explored in general studies on women’s roles 5,7. However, the situation is not one of uniform vulnerability ((E, 2022)). The divergence in adaptive capacity, as reflected in the contrasting outcomes noted in literature on economic resilience (Ayoker (PhD), 2021; Rupiya, 2023), is explained by this study’s data. Factors such as access to capital, type of enterprise, and social networks create a hierarchy of resilience among women traders. Consequently, while the broader literature highlights systemic gender inequality 1,11, this research specifies how climate variability interacts with these inequalities to differentially impact livelihood outcomes. Therefore, the contribution of this article is to synthesise these disparate threads—climate, gender, and urban informality—into a coherent analysis that clarifies the specific pathways linking heat stress to gendered economic insecurity in Juba.

Conclusion

This case study has elucidated the intricate nexus between escalating heat stress, climate variability, and the acute gendered livelihood vulnerability experienced by women in Juba, South Sudan. The analysis confirms that climate impacts are profoundly mediated by socio-economic structures and entrenched gender norms, with women’s economic agency being disproportionately compromised 6,13. The primary contribution of this research lies in its contextualised, systemic examination of how environmental stressors amplify pre-existing gendered constraints within a fragile, post-conflict urban setting, thereby moving beyond generic vulnerability assessments. The findings demonstrate that women’s livelihood activities within the informal sector are critically sensitive to climatic extremes. Prolonged heatwaves and erratic rainfall directly disrupt physical markets and agricultural productivity, intensifying labour burdens and health risks 2,11. This environmental pressure interacts with severe macroeconomic instability, where rampant inflation erodes profit margins and forces households into detrimental coping strategies 5,14. Consequently, the research advances a grounded African perspective by foregrounding how climate shocks intersect with economic fragility and the legacy of conflict to constrain women’s empowerment 8,12. The practical implications demand climate adaptation policies that are explicitly gendered and locally grounded. Interventions must address structural barriers, integrating investments in climate-resilient market infrastructure and sustainable energy access for cooling and food preservation 10. Energy policy must be re-envisioned as a critical enabler of adaptation, while parallel efforts to strengthen strained health services are essential to safeguard human capital 4,7. Future research should build upon this foundation to explore scalable solutions. Investigations into adapted passive cooling technologies, climate-smart agro-processing led by women’s collectives, and the formal integration of women’s leadership into adaptation planning are warranted 9,13. Longitudinal studies on integrated interventions combining livelihood support, energy access, and gender-transformative programming are crucial. In conclusion, the vulnerability documented is a dynamic outcome of intersecting pressures. Addressing it requires a holistic approach that recognises women as indispensable agents of resilience. Their economic empowerment in the face of climate variability is, therefore, a fundamental prerequisite for the sustainable development of South Sudan 1.

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