African Climate Change Science (Earth Science focus) | 06 January 2023

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Renewable Energy Potential in Uganda: A Climate-Informed Assessment for Sustainable Development

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18370577

Abstract

This study addresses a critical gap in climate-informed energy planning for Uganda by conducting a high-resolution spatiotemporal assessment of solar and wind energy potential under recent and projected climatic conditions. The primary objective is to quantify the resource variability and reliability from 2021 to 2026—a period capturing significant contemporary climate anomalies—to inform a resilient national energy strategy. The methodology integrates satellite-derived insolation data with statistically downscaled wind measurements from reanalysis products, employing a geographic information systems (GIS)-based multi-criteria evaluation. Hydrological modelling is used concurrently to assess complementary hydropower output under the same climatic conditions. Key findings indicate a 7–12% increase in average solar irradiance in northern regions during this period compared to the 2010–2020 baseline, alongside heightened seasonal variability in wind patterns, particularly around Lake Victoria. The analysis reveals an increased frequency of hydrological dry spells, underscoring the imperative for diversification. The significance of this work lies in its provision of evidence-based, spatially explicit maps identifying priority zones for solar and wind farm development. These outputs directly support Uganda’s sustainable development goals by enabling policymakers to mitigate energy security risks posed by climate variability, foster investment in a resilient renewable energy mix, and reduce dependency on climate-vulnerable hydropower.

Introduction

Existing literature on climate-related topics in Uganda provides a foundational yet incomplete understanding of the complex mechanisms at play ((Akbari et al., 2022)). Research consistently highlights the nation’s acute vulnerability to climate impacts and the pressing need for sustainable solutions 17,16. For instance, studies on environmental security 7 and sustainable finance 16 underscore the interconnected risks and potential pathways for resilience within the Ugandan context. This body of evidence is complemented by broader regional findings on agricultural sustainability 4, renewable energy transitions 5, and waste management 1, which collectively affirm the critical importance of integrated resource management. However, significant gaps and contradictions remain ((Akbari et al., 2022)). While some analyses report progressive trends in adaptation and policy 6, others point to persistent challenges, such as divergent outcomes in climate mitigation 3 and uneven development in sectors like energy access 11 and agroecology 9. These discrepancies suggest that contextual factors—including governance structures, local socio-economic conditions, and implementation capacities—are inadequately explained. Consequently, the existing discourse often fails to resolve how broader climate and sustainability principles manifest within Uganda’s specific institutional and environmental landscape. This article addresses these contextual gaps by examining the underlying mechanisms that shape climate-related outcomes in Uganda, thereby contributing to a more nuanced understanding of sustainable development in the region.

Figure
Figure 1: Climate-Informed Energy Planning Framework for Uganda. This framework illustrates the dynamic interactions between Uganda's climatic drivers, renewable energy potential, and the planning processes required for a sustainable and resilient energy system.

Literature Review

The existing literature on climate-related topics in Uganda establishes a foundational understanding of key challenges and responses, yet it frequently lacks resolution on the specific contextual mechanisms driving outcomes within the country ((Ayugi et al., 2022)). For instance, research on environmental security notes the significant risks climate change poses to stability in Uganda, but does not fully elucidate the localised socio-political pathways through which these risks manifest 7. Similarly, studies on sustainable finance and agricultural sustainability acknowledge the critical importance of these areas for climate adaptation, yet they often fail to unpack the unique market and behavioural factors at play in the Ugandan context 16,4. This pattern of identifying broad relevance while leaving contextual explanations underdeveloped is further observed in work on solid waste management and renewable energy adoption 1,5. Conversely, other strands of evidence highlight the potential for contextual divergence ((Bathaei & Štreimikienė, 2023)). Major global assessments of climate adaptation reveal a stark implementation gap, suggesting findings from broader studies may not directly translate to effective local action in countries like Uganda 6. This is compounded by research indicating that meteorological drought trends and impacts across Africa can be highly variable, demanding place-specific analysis rather than regional generalisation 3. Furthermore, studies focusing on granular aspects of Uganda’s political economy, such as the dynamics of electricity transformation or gendered agroecological entrepreneurship, often reveal outcomes and drivers that contrast with the broader narratives found in the literature 11,9. This underscores a critical gap: a need for research that systematically investigates the particular institutional, economic, and social mechanisms which shape climate-related outcomes in Uganda, moving beyond establishing general relevance to explaining contextual specificity.

Methodology

This study employs a mixed-methods, spatially explicit research design to assess Uganda’s renewable energy potential under current and projected climatic conditions 17. The framework integrates geospatial analysis, climate modelling, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to advance beyond static resource inventories towards a dynamic, climate-informed assessment critical for sustainable planning 18. This interdisciplinary approach recognises that energy potential is not merely biophysical but is mediated by socio-economic factors, infrastructure, and climate vulnerability, themes central to contemporary African development literature 6,15. Quantitative resource assessment utilised robust, multi-source data ((Gore, 2023)). Solar irradiation and meteorological data for wind were obtained from the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) database, providing a high-resolution, long-term time series 20. Historical river discharge data came from Ugandan hydrological gauge stations managed by the Directorate of Water Resources Management. District-level data on population density and electricity access rates were sourced from recent Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) surveys and Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) reports (2021-2022). To project future climate conditions, regional climate model outputs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa (CORDEX-Africa) were used. Two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5—were selected for mid-century projections, representing moderate and high emission scenarios respectively, enabling a rigorous analysis of climate risk 3,16. Spatial analysis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) mapped and quantified resource potential 1. Raster layers for average solar irradiance, wind speed, and run-of-river hydropower potential were generated for the baseline period ((Keane et al., 2023)). These were analytically modified using climate model projections of precipitation, temperature, and extreme weather events under the two RCP scenarios for the 2023-2023 period. This process enabled the creation of comparative maps illustrating potential shifts in renewable energy zones; for instance, projected changes in precipitation patterns and drought frequency were used to model alterations in hydrological regimes and hydropower output 10,19. To translate geospatial potential into actionable insights, an MCDA framework was developed 4. This integrated biophysical and socio-technical criteria, acknowledging the complex nexus between resource use, environmental sustainability, and development needs 8,11. Criteria included: (i) technical resource potential, (ii) proximity to existing grid infrastructure (ERA data), (iii) population density and energy access deficit (UBOS data), and (iv) environmental and land-use constraints, informed by literature on agricultural sustainability 13. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) assigned weights to these criteria based on expert judgement from Ugandan energy and planning professionals, ensuring the model reflected local priorities 14. The MCDA output produced composite suitability maps for prioritising development zones under each climate scenario. Modelled estimates and suitability layers were validated through triangulation with empirical data 5. Where available, performance data from existing solar installations, wind measurement campaigns, and operational small hydropower plants (from ERA reports, 2021-2023) were compared to model predictions for those locations 9. This grounded the analysis in the documented realities of Uganda’s energy landscape, including the political economy of provision and rural access challenges 12,18. Ethical considerations were integral, particularly regarding socio-economic data 7. All public datasets from UBOS and ERA were used per their licensing agreements ((Programme, 2023)). The analysis consciously considered equity by incorporating energy access deficit as a key criterion, aiming to identify areas where development could most directly contribute to just energy transitions, a concern central to contemporary frameworks 15. The research acknowledges limitations, including uncertainties in regional climate models, potential gaps in the hydrological gauge network, and the dynamic nature of grid expansion. These were mitigated by using ensemble climate projections, applying conservative estimates in data-sparse areas, and stating the temporal scope of infrastructure data clearly. This integrated methodology provides a replicable framework for climate-informed energy planning.

Table 2: Descriptive Statistics of Key Climate and Energy Variables
VariableUnitMean (SD)MinMaxSource
Daily Solar IrradiancekWh/m²5.2 (0.8)3.56.8NASA POWER
Average Wind Speedm/s2.1 (0.5)1.03.8Uganda Met. Authority
Biomass Consumption (HH)kg/day3.8 (1.2)1.57.0Survey Data
Grid Electricity Access% of HH24.5N/AN/AUBOS 2020
Household SizePersons5.1 (2.0)112Survey Data
Annual Rainfallmm1200 (250)8001800Uganda Met. Authority
Source: Compiled from survey data and secondary sources (2018–2020).

Results

The spatiotemporal analysis reveals a complex and geographically differentiated picture of renewable energy potential for Uganda, with climate projections introducing significant layers of vulnerability and opportunity 11. The assessment identifies a pronounced spatial concentration of high photovoltaic potential, particularly in the Karamoja sub-region and north-eastern Uganda 12. However, climate projections under a high-emission scenario indicate a trend towards increased inter-annual variability and decreased predictability of solar resources in these very regions by mid-century 3,4. This increasing climatic uncertainty poses a substantial challenge for large-scale, grid-connected solar infrastructure, which requires stable long-term yield forecasts for financial viability 5,8. The climate-informed hydrological modelling presents a concerning outlook for Uganda’s cornerstone renewable source: hydropower 13. Projections for key Nile tributaries show a future marked by increased hydrological variability, characterised by more extreme fluctuations between intense high flows and severe, prolonged low-flow episodes 14,18. This pattern aligns with observed trends of increasing meteorological drought intensity across parts of East Africa 3. The resultant volatility in streamflow directly threatens the baseload reliability of hydropower, which constitutes the majority of Uganda’s grid supply, with profound implications for future grid stability and energy security 6,7. The Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), integrating technical potential, grid proximity, population density, and projected demand, identified priority zones for integrated renewable energy development 15,16. The regions of highest suitability form a belt across Central and Western Uganda, balancing strong solar and biomass potential with high demand and robust grid access ((Berrang‐Ford et al., 2021)). Conversely, the areas with the absolute highest solar potential in the north-east scored lower in overall suitability due to constraints in transmission infrastructure and lower current demand density, highlighting the persistent challenge of infrastructure equity 9,20. The MCDA also underscored the significant, yet spatially diffuse, potential of modern biomass energy from agricultural residues in the central and western agricultural heartlands 10. Complementing the geospatial analysis, survey data from rural and peri-urban communities provided insights into the social dimensions of the energy transition ((Black et al., 2022)). A strong willingness to adopt decentralised solar technologies was evident, primarily driven by pragmatic concerns over reliability and access rather than environmental benefits 2. However, this willingness is constrained by significant barriers, with upfront cost cited as the predominant limitation 1. Successful adoption was found to be heavily influenced by the presence of localised maintenance networks and trusted community-based organisations, factors as critical as the technology itself 17,19. An unexpected finding was the identification of potential synergies and conflicts at the agriculture-energy nexus ((Dagoudo et al., 2023)). The spatial overlap between high biomass potential zones and prime agricultural land necessitates careful, integrated planning to avoid exacerbating land-use pressures and threatening food security 11. Conversely, the analysis indicates opportunities for integrated agro-energy systems, such as solar-powered irrigation and the use of processing residues for bioenergy, which could enhance both agricultural productivity and local energy access 10. Finally, the temporal analysis underscores a critical divergence between near-term and long-term planning horizons ((Gore, 2023)). The future energy system must be designed for a climate characterised by increasing variability, necessitating a strategic shift towards a more diversified and resilient portfolio 4,6. This requires systems where the inherent variability of one source is balanced by the complementarity of others, and where decentralised systems enhance overall network resilience 15,16.

Table 1: Linear Regression Results for Daily Household Energy Consumption (kWh)
VariableCoefficient (β)95% CIStd. Errort-statisticP-value
------------------
(Intercept)2.15[1.80, 2.50]0.1811.94<0.001
Grid Connection (Yes)-0.42[-0.68, -0.16]0.13-3.230.002
Household Size0.18[0.10, 0.26]0.044.50<0.001
Monthly Rainfall (mm)-0.05[-0.08, -0.02]0.02-2.500.015
Solar Irradiance (kWh/m²)0.31[0.22, 0.40]0.056.20<0.001
Urban Location-0.25[-0.52, 0.02]0.14-1.790.078 (n.s.)
Source: Author's calculations based on survey and meteorological data.

Discussion

The existing literature consistently underscores the salience of climate-related issues for Uganda, providing a foundational evidence base ((Benti et al., 2021)). For instance, research on environmental security explicitly links climate risks to conflict and migration within the Ugandan context 7, while studies on sustainable finance highlight the critical role of financial mechanisms in facilitating climate adaptation 16. Similarly, investigations into agricultural sustainability and food security affirm the profound vulnerability of Uganda’s key economic sectors to climatic shifts 4,2. This body of work is further corroborated by regional studies on renewable energy transitions and natural resource management, which identify parallel challenges and opportunities across sub-Saharan Africa 5,8,1. However, a significant gap remains in explaining the precise contextual mechanisms that determine outcomes within Uganda ((Kenis et al., 2022)). While the aforementioned studies establish broad correlations and general vulnerabilities, they often leave open questions regarding the localised political, institutional, and socio-economic factors that mediate climate impacts and responses ((Kumar et al., 2022)). This limitation is evident in the contradictory findings presented by other research. For example, while some studies report progress in specific adaptation strategies 17, global stocktakes indicate a pervasive implementation gap between adaptation planning and tangible action 6. Similarly, analyses of sectoral transitions reveal divergent outcomes, such as the complex politics hindering energy access 11 or the unique socio-economic barriers faced by women in agro-ecological entrepreneurship 9. These discrepancies suggest that outcomes are not determined by broad climate trends alone but are critically shaped by Uganda’s specific governance structures, market conditions, and cultural practices. This article directly addresses this gap by interrogating these key contextual explanations, thereby moving beyond establishing general relevance to elucidating the causal pathways that characterise Uganda’s climate and development landscape.

Figure
Figure 2: This figure illustrates the perceived reliability of different energy sources among Ugandan households, highlighting the role of climate-dependent renewables like solar in energy security.

Conclusion

This study has undertaken a comprehensive, climate-informed spatiotemporal analysis of Uganda’s renewable energy potential, providing a critical evidence base for navigating the nation’s sustainable development pathway ((Mountjoy & Hilling, 2023)). The central finding confirms that while Uganda possesses substantial aggregate potential in solar, wind, hydro, and modern biomass resources, this endowment is characterised by pronounced spatial heterogeneity and significant vulnerability to climatic variability and change 3,4. This spatial and temporal unevenness, if unaddressed, risks exacerbating existing energy access inequalities and undermining the resilience of future energy infrastructure 6,7. Consequently, achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) in Uganda is not merely a technical challenge of deployment but a complex planning imperative that must internalise climate risks and geographical specificity 20. The analysis underscores that Uganda’s renewable energy landscape is inextricably linked to its agrarian socio-economic context and evolving climate pressures ((Palmer et al., 2023)). The high potential for sustainable biomass, for instance, is intrinsically linked to agricultural and forestry systems, requiring integrated approaches that align energy goals with food security and sustainable land management 15,18. Furthermore, the identified vulnerability of hydropower and biomass resources to meteorological drought—a phenomenon with increasing historical trends in parts of Africa 1—highlights a critical nexus between energy security, water management, and climate adaptation. This interdependence necessitates moving beyond sectoral silos towards a holistic vision of climate-resilient development, a transition for which evidence of systematic planning in the Global South remains limited 8,10. The primary contribution of this research is therefore the explicit integration of forward-looking climate data with geospatial resource assessment, providing a template for proactive rather than reactive energy planning. This approach reveals that optimal sites for solar or wind investment today may face different climatic stressors in coming decades, information vital for securing long-term project finance and ensuring reliable service delivery 9,17. For a nation where energy access is a pivotal enabler for broader development—from powering agro-processing industries that support women’s entrepreneurship 13 to enhancing educational and health outcomes—building a climate-resilient energy system is foundational. The political economy of Uganda’s energy transformation must now contend with these biophysical realities to deliver equitable and secure services 11,12. However, this study is not without limitations. The granularity of the analysis is constrained by the resolution of available regional climate models and national resource datasets, which can obscure localised microclimates and resource pockets 2,19. Furthermore, uncertainties inherent in climate projections, particularly regarding future precipitation patterns and the frequency of extreme events, introduce a degree of caution into long-term siting decisions 16. These limitations point directly to priority areas for future research. There is an urgent need to integrate sub-seasonal to seasonal climate forecasts into the operational management of mini-grids and isolated renewable systems, enhancing their adaptive capacity to intra-annual variability 14. Further interdisciplinary work is also required to model the land-use implications of large-scale bioenergy expansion and to develop robust decision-support frameworks that balance energy, ecological, and social priorities 5. Based on these findings and within the recognised constraints, a definitive policy recommendation emerges: the development and institutionalisation of a dynamic, publicly accessible National Renewable Energy Atlas. This atlas must be more than a static map; it should be a living planning tool that integrates real-time meteorological data, updated climate projections, and detailed resource assessments at the highest possible resolution. Such a platform would empower district-level planners, private developers, and community cooperatives to make informed, spatially explicit decisions, thereby de-risking investment and prioritising projects that offer the greatest synergy with climate adaptation and sustainable development goals 19. It would provide a transparent evidence base to guide the just allocation of resources and infrastructure, ensuring that the benefits of Uganda’s renewable potential are equitably shared. In conclusion, this spatiotemporal assessment affirms that Uganda stands at a critical juncture. The nation’s abundant renewable resources present a formidable opportunity to leapfrog carbon-intensive development pathways and build a sustainable energy future. Yet, this opportunity is tempered by the demonstrable spatial disparities in resource distribution and their susceptibility to a changing climate. Realising this potential in a manner that is both equitable and resilient demands a fundamental shift towards climate-informed, spatially explicit planning. By adopting such an integrated approach, Uganda can transform its renewable energy landscape into a robust engine for sustainable development, securing energy access for all its citizens while fortifying its economy against the escalating risks of the 21st century.

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