Climate Resilience and Energy Transition Pathways in Uganda: An Analysis of Renewable Potential and Policy Frameworks

This study investigates the alignment between Uganda’s renewable energy planning and its climate resilience imperatives, a critical nexus for sustainable development. It addresses a significant gap in integrated, spatially explicit assessments that inform policy during the current strategic period (2021–2026). Employing a mixed-methods approach, the research combines geospatial analysis of solar, hydro, and biomass resources with a systematic critical review of key policy documents, including Uganda’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (2022) and its Energy Transition Plan. Findings reveal a substantial, yet underutilised, potential for decentralised solar energy, particularly in northern regions experiencing heightened climate variability. Conversely, the analysis identifies a strategic misalignment: national frameworks continue to prioritise large-scale hydropower, which is increasingly vulnerable to climatic shocks such as prolonged droughts, over distributed renewable systems that could enhance community-level resilience. The study concludes that this disconnect jeopardises concurrent energy security and climate adaptation objectives. It argues for a strategic policy pivot towards a diversified and decentralised renewable energy mix, underpinned by integrated climate risk assessments. The findings advocate for African-led energy planning that explicitly prioritises investments which bolster both mitigation and adaptive capacity for vulnerable populations.