This study addresses a current research gap in Environmental Science concerning Methodological evaluation of smallholder farms systems in Senegal: time-series forecasting model for measuring system reliability in Senegal. The objective is to formulate a rigorous model, state verifiable assumptions, and derive results with direct analytical or practical implications. A structured analytical approach was used, integrating formal modelling with domain evidence. The results establish bounded error under perturbation, a convergent estimation process under stated assumptions, and a stable link between the proposed metric and observed outcomes. The findings provide a reproducible analytical basis for subsequent theoretical and applied extensions. Stakeholders should prioritise inclusive, locally grounded strategies and improve data transparency. Methodological evaluation of smallholder farms systems in Senegal: time-series forecasting model for measuring system reliability, Senegal, Africa, Environmental Science, theoretical This work contributes a formal specification, transparent assumptions, and mathematically interpretable claims. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.