Vol. 2002 No. 1 (2002)

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Time-Series Forecasting Model for Measuring Adoption Rates in South African Field Research Stations Systems

Sipho Motshega, Department of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of the Western Cape
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18744857
Published: May 19, 2002

Abstract

South African field research stations play a critical role in environmental monitoring and management. However, their adoption rates vary significantly over time. The study employed an AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for its analysis. The ARIMA(1,0,1) structure was selected based on optimal fit criteria. The forecasted adoption rate of field research stations in South Africa shows a steady increase from the current level over the next five years, with an expected growth rate of 5% annually. This study provides evidence that ARIMA can effectively predict adoption rates for environmental monitoring systems in South Africa. Further studies should explore broader regional applications and incorporate additional variables to enhance model accuracy. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.

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How to Cite

Sipho Motshega (2002). Time-Series Forecasting Model for Measuring Adoption Rates in South African Field Research Stations Systems. African Physical Geography (Earth Science focus), Vol. 2002 No. 1 (2002). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18744857

Keywords

African GeographyAdoption RatesTime-Series AnalysisForecasting ModelsMethodologyEnvironmental MonitoringGeographic Information Systems

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Vol. 2002 No. 1 (2002)
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African Physical Geography (Earth Science focus)

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