Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in South Africa: Quasi-Experimental Design for Risk Reduction Measurement

Public health surveillance systems play a crucial role in monitoring infectious diseases and other public health threats across South Africa. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining quantitative data analysis with qualitative interviews to assess system performance and identify areas for improvement. The preliminary results suggest that current surveillance systems are effective in detecting outbreaks within the expected 72-hour timeframe (mean detection time: 68 hours), although there is room for optimization regarding timeliness and accuracy. While the existing public health surveillance systems demonstrate adequate performance, further refinements are needed to enhance their efficiency and effectiveness. Immediate improvements should include enhancing data interoperability, increasing training for healthcare workers, and implementing real-time communication protocols between surveillance centers. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.