African Journal of Anesthesia | 19 May 2008
Forecasting Yield Improvement in Ghanaian District Hospitals: A Time-Series Model Evaluation
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Abstract
District hospitals in Ghana play a crucial role in healthcare delivery but face challenges in resource allocation and service efficiency. A time-series model was developed using historical data from Ghanaian district hospitals. The model's accuracy was tested through cross-validation procedures to ensure robust predictions. The forecasting model demonstrated an average forecast error of ±5% in predicting patient throughput for the next quarter, indicating moderate predictive capability. While the time-series model showed promising initial results, further validation and refinement are needed before its widespread application in district hospital management. Further research should focus on incorporating real-time data sources to enhance model performance and address potential biases. time series forecasting, district hospitals, Ghanaian healthcare systems, yield improvement Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p<em>i)=\beta</em>0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.