African Dentistry Journal | 09 September 2013
Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Community Health Centre Systems in South Africa: A Longitudinal Study
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Abstract
Community health centres in South Africa have faced challenges in service delivery over recent years. A time-series forecasting model was employed to analyse data from to across multiple centres. The forecasting model showed an average yield increase of 5% in service delivery over the study period, with significant variance among different regions. This study provides a robust framework for evaluating and improving community health centre systems in South Africa using time-series analysis. Regular updates to the forecasting model are recommended based on ongoing performance data. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p<em>i)=\beta</em>0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.