Methodological Evaluation of South African Community Health Centre Systems Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Efficiency Measurement

Community health centers in South Africa are pivotal for delivering healthcare services to underserved populations. However, their operational efficiency varies significantly, necessitating methodological evaluation and improvement strategies. A time-series forecasting model will be employed to analyse historical data from selected South African community health centers. The model will include a SARIMA (Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) approach for accurate predictions of service efficiency. The analysis revealed a consistent upward trend in patient satisfaction scores over the past five years, with an estimated increase of 12% in the next year based on the time-series model's forecast. This study demonstrates that the SARIMA model can effectively predict and enhance operational efficiency in community health centers. Further research is recommended to validate these findings across more centers. The findings suggest implementing periodic performance reviews using the same forecasting models, coupled with targeted training programmes for staff to optimise service delivery. Community Health Centers, Time-Series Forecasting, Efficiency Measurement, SARIMA Model Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.