Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012)

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Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centres Systems in South Africa Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Clinical Outcomes Assessment

Zakhele Dube, Department of Public Health, Nelson Mandela University Sifiso Mkhize, South African Institute for Medical Research (SAIMR) Mthethwa Khumalo, South African Institute for Medical Research (SAIMR)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18943630
Published: November 6, 2012

Abstract

Community health centres (CHCs) play a crucial role in addressing healthcare needs within South Africa's diverse and resource-limited settings. Clinical data from 10 CHCs over a five-year period were analysed. Time-series forecasting models, specifically ARIMA (p,d,q) with $\hat{Y}_{t+1} = \phi_0 + \sum_{i=1}^{d}\phi_i\Delta^i(\hat{Y}_t - \mu_t) + \sum_{j=1}^{q}\Phi_j\epsilon_{t-j}$, were employed to predict future clinical outcomes. The ARIMA models showed a significant correlation ($R^2 > 0.75$, $p < 0.001$) between predicted and actual patient recovery times, indicating the effectiveness of forecasting in measuring CHC performance. Time-series forecasting models provide reliable insights into clinical outcomes within CHCs, enhancing their operational efficiency and resource allocation strategies. CHCs should implement robust data collection systems and regularly update their forecasting models to ensure accuracy and responsiveness to evolving health needs.

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How to Cite

Zakhele Dube, Sifiso Mkhize, Mthethwa Khumalo (2012). Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centres Systems in South Africa Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Clinical Outcomes Assessment. African Journal of Otolaryngology (ENT), Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18943630

Keywords

African geographycommunity health centrestime-series analysisforecasting modelsclinical outcomesresource-limited settingsepidemiology

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Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012)
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African Journal of Otolaryngology (ENT)

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