Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012)

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Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating South African Community Health Centre Systems in 2012

Isaac Mkhwanazi, South African Institute for Medical Research (SAIMR) Zola Nomonde, Department of Pediatrics, South African Institute for Medical Research (SAIMR) Nathan Nkabinde, Wits Business School
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18945432
Published: July 12, 2012

Abstract

This case study examines the South African community health centre systems in , focusing on their cost-effectiveness. A time-series forecasting model was developed using historical data from South African community health centres. The model incorporates ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology for trend analysis. Confidence intervals were used to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts. The forecast indicated an upward trend in service utilization, with a predicted increase of 10% in patient consultations over the next year. The forecasting model demonstrated the potential for improving resource allocation and planning within community health centres. The findings suggest that proactive interventions could mitigate future financial strain. Implementing preventive healthcare strategies to reduce utilisation peaks is recommended, alongside continuous monitoring of service trends. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Isaac Mkhwanazi, Zola Nomonde, Nathan Nkabinde (2012). Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating South African Community Health Centre Systems in 2012. African Health Economics (Medical focus), Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18945432

Keywords

African geographycommunity health centresforecasting modelstime series analysiscost-effectiveness evaluationepidemiologystatistical methods

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Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012)
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African Health Economics (Medical focus)

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