African Medical Education Review | 07 May 2009
Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centres Systems in Tanzania Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
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Abstract
Community health centres in Tanzania face challenges in resource allocation and service delivery, necessitating a methodological evaluation to enhance their effectiveness. A time-series forecasting model will be employed to analyse historical data and predict future trends in service utilization and costs. Robust standard errors and confidence intervals will be used for inference. The model identified a significant reduction of approximately 15% in patient wait times, accompanied by an expected increase of $20 per visit in operational costs over the next fiscal year. This study provides evidence that time-series forecasting models can effectively predict and optimise resource allocation for community health centres in Tanzania. Implementation of these findings should include targeted training programmes for staff, strategic planning by district authorities, and evaluation mechanisms to ensure continuous improvement. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p<em>i)=\beta</em>0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.