Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011)

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Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Community Health Centre Systems in Uganda,

Otombe Otim, Uganda Christian University, Mukono Kizza Okello, National Agricultural Research Organisation (NARO) Nakijinya Kakooza, Department of Surgery, Makerere University, Kampala Ssekanyankwe Kizza, National Agricultural Research Organisation (NARO)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18917572
Published: December 5, 2011

Abstract

Community health centres in Uganda have faced challenges in meeting service demands over time. A comprehensive time-series analysis was conducted using statistical software, incorporating historical data from -. The study employed an ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model for forecasting future trends in service utilization and system performance. The ARIMA model indicated a significant increase of 5% in patient consultations per month, suggesting improved service capacity over the year. The time-series forecasting approach demonstrated promising results in evaluating community health centre systems' reliability, with substantial improvements observed in patient consultation rates. Further research should focus on scalability and cost-effectiveness of the model to ensure widespread application across Ugandan healthcare settings. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Otombe Otim, Kizza Okello, Nakijinya Kakooza, Ssekanyankwe Kizza (2011). Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Community Health Centre Systems in Uganda,. African Neurology and Neurosurgery, Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18917572

Keywords

African geographycommunity healthforecasting modelintervention studypublic healthtime-series analysissystem evaluation

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Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011)
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African Neurology and Neurosurgery

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