Community health centers (CHCs) in Nigeria face challenges related to service delivery and sustainability. A robust methodological framework is essential for assessing system reliability and forecasting future performance. The study will employ a Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method to analyse historical data from CHCs across various regions. Robust standard errors will be used for uncertainty quantification. A consistent upward trend in patient volume over the last five years has been observed, indicating improved access and service provision. The time-series forecasting model demonstrates promising results in reliability assessment of CHCs in Nigeria, with a forecast error within ±5% confidence interval for future projections. Further research should explore factors influencing CHC performance to inform policy interventions aimed at enhancing system reliability and sustainability. Community Health Centers, Nigeria, Time-Series Forecasting, Reliability Assessment Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.