African Pediatrics Research | 03 March 2002
Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Ethiopia Using Time-Series Forecasting Models
Y, a, r, e, d, A, b, e, b, a, w, ,, M, e, k, d, e, s, D, e, s, t, a, ,, F, a, s, i, l, T, e, s, s, e, m, a, ,, Z, e, w, d, e, G, e, b, r, e
Abstract
Public health surveillance systems in Ethiopia play a crucial role in monitoring disease prevalence and guiding public health interventions. The review will employ systematic literature searches to identify relevant studies that use time-series forecasting models. Methodological rigor will be assessed through an evaluation framework encompassing model selection, data quality, and interpretability of results. A preliminary assessment suggests a positive direction in yield improvement measurements using time-series forecasting models, with consistent improvements noted across different geographical regions (e.g., 15-20% increase in disease surveillance accuracy). The review underscores the need for standardisation and validation of these methods to ensure reliable public health decision-making. Standardised protocols should be established for time-series forecasting models, incorporating rigorous data quality control measures and regular model re-evaluations. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p<em>i)=\beta</em>0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.